Base Built or Dead-Cat Drift? STRK’s Early-Cycle Make-or-Break

📊 STRK Market Structure — Early-Cycle Reclaim

1W
• First potential reversal base after a 10-month decline.
• Exhaustion under $0.12–0.14; first HH attempt forming.
• $0.12 → $0.18 range expansion = first meaningful accumulation signal since early 2024.

2D
• Breakout > $0.16 = minor bullish CHoCH with volume confirmation.
• Close > $0.18 sets clean expansion toward $0.23–0.25 supply.
• Rejection here → likely revisit of $0.15 liquidity pocket before the next try.

12H
• Short-term structure printing higher lows.
• POC ≈ $0.163 acts as near-term magnet.
• Flush into $0.158–0.162 with delta absorption = ideal reload.
• Strong 12H close > $0.182 → continuation impulse to $0.20–0.22 range highs.

📈 Orderflow / Derivatives
• Open Interest: ≈ $90M, +35% w/w — leverage building, still moderate
• Funding: 0%–0.01% — neutral (no crowding)
• CVD: flipped positive — spot buying returning
• Liquidations: stacked below $0.155 and above $0.185 — watch for hunts both ways
• Venue mix: Bybit leading OI share → retail rotation creeping in

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⚔️ Sweep Zones / Execution Boxes

🔶 Resistance Sweep Zone — $0.185 → $0.205
• 12H close > $0.205 with OI rising + CVD accelerating → breakout leg → $0.23–0.25.
• Rejection + OI flush → short-term top → return to $0.163 POC.

🟩 Support Sweep Zone — $0.155 → $0.165
• Strong absorption + OI reset → accumulation zone for trend continuation.
• Break < $0.155 = failed reversal → $0.125 range floor retest.

⚫ Deep Liquidity Zone — $0.115 → $0.130
• Last demand shelf / weekly re-accumulation.
• Break below = macro bearish continuation.

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🧭 Interpretation
STRK sits in early-cycle recovery within the L2 rotation. STRK/BTC ≈ 0.000015 shows the first relative-strength reclaim since Q1 2024 — a clear rotation tell if it holds. Bias = accumulation → markup transition. Hold > $0.16 and watch for $0.205 confirmation to ignite the next leg into Q4.