SRF Update – Trading Near a 3-Year Range Watch for breakout

📌 Cheat Entry: ₹2704
📌 Entry: ₹2864 (ATH Level)
📌 Stop Loss: ₹2259.8 (Closing Basis, -16.6%)
📌 Target 1: ₹3386 (+25%, R:R 1:1.5 from Cheat Entry)
📌 Positional Target: ₹3910 (+44.6%, R:R 1:2.7 from Cheat Entry)

💡 How to Trade:

1️⃣ Test Quantities: Add small quantities above the Cheat Entry (₹2704).
2️⃣ Full Entry: Add the rest above the ATH breakout level (₹2864).
3️⃣ Look for a clean breakout with a wide-range candle supported by strong volumes.

⚠️ Position Sizing Tip:

The market remains weak. Trade only 10% of your usual position size.
Example: If you usually buy 100 stocks, buy 3 above Cheat Entry and the rest above ₹2864 (ATH breakout).

✅ Why Trade This Setup:

🏷️ Stock has been in a range since Oct 2021 and is now trading below its ATH.
📈 Once the ATH is broken, no resistance remains, setting the stage for a potential Stage 2 breakout.
🚀 Stock gapped up on Jan 9, 2025, with volumes 7x-8x higher than previous sessions—a potential breakaway gap.
🔑 Trading above key DMAs, showing resilience in a falling market.

⚠️ Risks to Watch:

Nifty 50 & Overall Market: The structure remains Lower-High, Lower-Low (LL-LH). Any bounce could be just a natural pullback within this structure.
If Nifty or the broader market falls further, the probability of failure increases significantly.
Until Nifty & broader market close above 200 DMA & 50 DMA, and change the structure to HH-HL, the risks are amplified.
Probability: 2 out of 3 trades may fail in such conditions.

💡 Pro Tip: Trade small quantities unless you’re skilled at managing risk. Missing a rally is better than burning your capital.

📜 Disclaimer:
This analysis is shared for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Please consult with a certified financial advisor and consider your risk tolerance before making any trading or investment decisions.

🔍 Final Thoughts:
📊 This trade aligns with the potential for a major breakout, but it’s crucial to manage risk and position sizing carefully. Make decisions based on your risk appetite and always do your due diligence.