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Attempt To Make The Most Accurate Forecast In TV History

업데이트됨

Purpose of this post: to make the most accurate near-term forecast in TradingView History

- Expectation is that SPY trades along the BLACK arrow/path over the next couple days
- Banking on a big gap up Monday 1/29/2024

Summary:
* Initial Target = 492 by Tuesday Jan 30th
** Goal Target 494-495 by Wed. Jan 31st

In order to avoid the need for anyone to post a slick comment about the lines on this chart (Ha Ha Ha) I'm posting my exact forecast (below). I use these lines to draw the forecast, they are systematic and necessary. Refer to the following:

1/26 9:30am EST - gap to 491 (it will hit 491 within the first 15 minutes of trading)
1/26 10:15am EST - drop to 489
1/26 10:30am EST - bounce to 490
1/26 11:30am EST pullback to 489.65
1/26 12:00pm EST - bounce to 490.91. From here we will see continuation higher to the following levels:
1/26 1:15pm EST - Hit initial target = 492
1/26 3:30pm EST - Hit Goal Target = 494

~ 492 will hit 1/29 with high probability. If 494 doesn't hit yet on 1/29, it will hit on 1/30.

SPY can extend slightly above 494-495 range to around 497, but there will be sellers in this range. After targets are hit this will pullback to test the gap level around 491 by 2/2/2024. I'll send an update at that point.

I'm currently in the following calls that I bought before the bell Friday 12/16:
Jan 29 490 calls (cost = 0.28)
Jan 29 492 calls (cost = 0.07)
Jan 30 492 calls (cost = 0.31)
Jan 31 494 calls (cost = 0.45)

After hitting initial target of 492 I'll be taking profits on half my total position. I'll take profits on the rest when this hits 494-495 (will keep a few calls open to see if it can wick 497).

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To provide some context for where this expected pop is coming from structurally, here is my Elliot Wave Count (it isn't shown on the chart):

- pop to targets 492-494 will complete wave v of 3 of (5)
- after this we will begin 4 of (5), which will be a pullback to as low as 475-480 to test previous ATH for support - I will be giving an update based on how this trades after hitting targets on the initial retest of 491 to begin pullback
- 5 of (5) will take us 1 leg higher to 500+ in March 2024.

The count of (5) started at the low in October 2022: (1) was the Feb 2023 high; (2) was the March 2023 low; (3) was the July 2023 high; (4) was the October 2023 low; and now we are working toward completing (5).

This is (5) of a larger degree b wave, which is not the norm (generally ABC structure).

Don't short this until after (5) completes, but at the same time don't go all in bullish because after (5) completes there will be significant downside in the form of a c wave.

I've been playing this by swinging near-term options and not getting greedy. Take these profits when they come - not financial advice.

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Thursday and Friday of last week completed the minor re-accumulation phases needed to get this expected markup.

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SPY needs to break above 487.95 premarket to activate the gap up. At that level futures will breakout (4897.30 for SPX500USD) and run into open, creating the expected gap. Currently at 487.78...

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Update on positions:

Jan 29 490 calls (cost = 0.28) --> sold for 1.10 (+293% gain). I saw them at 1.41 and 5 mins too long but got em off for 1.10.

Jan 29 492 calls (cost = 0.07) --> expired worthless. 60cents shy

Jan 30 492 calls (cost = 0.31) --> still holding for continuation to target tomorrow, currently worth 0.74, up +139% (got higher during the trading session, looking for >= 2.00 tomorrow)

Jan 31 494 calls (cost = 0.45) --> still holding, not selling until they get in the money. Currently worth 0.94 (up +109%)

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Was expecting open at 491 but got close at 491 instead. My bad, still worked out though.

Let's finish this v wave tomorrow above 494.

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For context of where SPY is at larger degree, refer to this post. Can see it is trading as expected at the daily level:

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Expecting us to hit 494-495 today around 2-3pm (1/30), as long as it doesn't break below 489.84 we are still on track toward target.

After it hits target it will be time to take profits because the expected pullback from there will be to 488-489 minimum.

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Buy the dip.

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If you take my black forecasted path and drag it down and rightward you'll see it hit exact lol

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post-FOMC targets (time to targets very conservative):

initial target = 490 by 2/2
intermediate target = 495 by 2/9
Goal target = 500 by 2/16

Could drop to as low as 479.98 to test prev. ATH for support and still be bullish - not expecting that though.

No stops here, longs and shorts will get stopped out/whipsawed on the volatility from FOMC around 2-3:30 pm today. Just know where its headed (higher) and leverage discounts as opportunity.

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Between AAPL, META, AMZN I'm Expecting at least 2 out of 3 to have bullish earnings today and drive this higher tomorrow through 2/16.

Targets for big tech by 2/16:

META 420
AMZN 164
AAPL 198

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META hit my 420 target
AMZN hit my 164 target
Still waiting on AAPL.

Get ready for whole market to rally tomorrow enroute to SPY 500+

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Goal target of 494 hit. This is just getting started though. It will snag 500 minimum.

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Ran an updated analysis on the SPYder, here are my expectations for the next 2 weeks.

- Monday 2/5 expect consolidation in the 492-495 range
- Tuesday 2/6 will begin next leg up to the following targets:

pt1 = 497-499 by Wednesday 2/7/2024
pt 2 = 500-502 by Friday 2/9

If you're playing this long go out an extra week (2/16 expiration calls) to give it enough time. If this consolidates longer than Monday then it could take until 2/14 to hit 500.

I'll be waiting for a signal that its ready to attempt 500 before re-entering long.

Don't short this yet unless you want to lose money. There will be a great opportunity to short soon - maybe end of Feb or early March, but not yet.