SPY: Which way will it break??!!

Spy did a major recovery from the January crash and right now consolidating at a critical resistance area. Today's CPI news driven pullback was rough. However, the price action is still creating an ascending triangle formation.

Bull case:

1. Still making higher lows and a flat top
2. Ideally .618 extension level needs to hold at 442 to keep the bull case going
3. The intra day whipsaw suggests market is creating a balance to decide where to go next. If the bears were that strong, then they could have broken the support areas today. They didn't
4. If price manages t go back to test 458 again, it will break through (3rd time is the charm)
5. Price tested the topside of the downward channel in a while, so first rejection is expected, specially at a heavy supply zone
6. The nearby gaps are closed

Bear case:

1. Sentiment is still pretty negative with economic worries, political worries, virus worries etc.
2. Triangle break to the downside could take the price below 442 support
3. The 458 level is proving to be difficult to get through
4. If 441 level gives up, then a waterfall downturn could ensue to retest the lows at 400 again.
5. VIX is staying above 20 and spiking heavily on down days
6. Not in this chart, but price closed below 10/21/50 EMA again