10/30/2020 Possible scenarios for the SPY - bigger picture

2020년 10월 30일

Technical reasoning
Elliot completed the cycle, from 0-5 and A-B-C. It Failed to move higher than 5, last high of the complete Elliot cycle.
RS1 acted as the trendline, (5) was a false breakout.

Fundamental risks

Housing risk - In March 2021, government-mandated forbearance periods for millions of mortgages will end. No further assistance is proposed as of now.

Biden (?) - We may possibly see sell-off if Biden gets elected, to avoid higher capital gain taxes that will drive the market further down, fast. He proposed a ridiculous rate hike on the capital gain taxes According to his new proposal. Please see link below for more info.

"Perhaps Biden’s worst idea is to hike the top capital gains tax rate from 23.8 percent to 43.4 percent."
source: The Hill
thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/economy-budget/523173-bidens-foolish-capital-gains-tax-increase