Short dated contracts means being able to pivot.

2022년 11월 17일

It’s hard to get a read on the markets in 2022.

0 Days to Expire contracts are all the new rage.

SPY getting involved with new weekly expiring days on Tue and Thu to join in on the 0DTE action.

So that leaves us between VixEx and OpEx.

OpEx is the poster child for 2020-2021 bull markets “sell the rip, buy the dip”.

It’s because Options expiration week will mean stronger volatility as the time greeks on options tick down to 0 at a faster rate.

Still some red in store, but I think we’re getting down to an index pin for Friday at 3915.

Some indicators like Max Pain are suggesting lower to 38 hundreds.

Next Hedge Equity Support levels on SPX
3872
3835
3740

3915 is Naive GEX Zero Gamma so we could find support here at RTH open.

Support on ES are

3915 is 26 week Kijun

3863 is my lower target to test the 20 Day

Yesterday I said the bulls had to hold 395 SPY to keep the trend alive.

Bulls couldn’t hold overnight and a gap down is the result.

391 is the next major support on SPY.

For trading, I bought 385 Puts before close yesterday, playing the pivot at 395.90 to test the 20D.

Sold them at open.

VIX is still putting in lower highs.

As long as 26.5 keeps being dumped vol will continue to compress lower into nov thanksgiving weekend.

That’s when we’re likely to see a change in Vol. The exact same setup occurred last year into Thanksgiving with a rally in Oct to after the long TG long weekend.

2022년 11월 17일

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Here is 2021. Same melt up rally.


This ultimately was part of a bigger Vol Compression Pattern that led to the end of Dec Rally.

2022년 11월 17일

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This also happens to be the Hedged Equity funds Window of Weakness. That is why the timing is so familiar.


Hedged Equity Flows Window of Weakness

2022년 11월 17일

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2022년 11월 18일

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