carvil_

SPY consolidating between fib levels, but bearish

AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST
As you can see, SPY has been consolidating between 0.5 and 0.618 fib levels since mid-April. However, there are some bearish signs to be aware of:

  • this week we broke the uptrend (yellow line) that has been going since the beginning of April
  • we can see a double top pattern around the fib 0.618 level, which is extremely bearish and signals a reversal
  • we broke the RSI trendline as well
  • there's a MACD crossover which signals a change in direction (yellow box)

I think the trend reversal is a given and a matter of time. Are we revisiting the March lows? It's very hard to say. I'm keeping my eye on that blue line (trendline since 2016) as a potential buying opportunity, should it hold.

All that said, bears have been lacking the power to reverse this for a while. One great example is what happened on the 14th of May. There's a lot of manipulation too, with carefully orchestrated press conferences and interviews to prop up the market.

Stay focused, stay safe. Have a great weekend folks.

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