Range or Trend? 21st October 2022

2022년 10월 20일🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈

➤ Without wanting to sound like a broken record, prices are still treading carefully around the important support/resistance level.

➤ That being said, the Bearish picture is progressively getting clearer. Not enough yet to pull any triggers but very close. Here's why and why not:

➤ S&P500 price once again rejected the opportunity to stay above our key level at 371. Finishing near the daily low and printing a bearish looking candlestick.

➤ We can count the recent peak on 18th Oct as another lower high. The classic definition of a downtrend with lower highs and lower lows remains intact.

➤ VIX continues to contract. Now below 30, out of the panic zone. Contractions usually lead to higher equity prices. Not so in the last few days. This needs a resolution to clear up the overall bearish picture. I am watching this as a determining factor.

➤ I remain long with +20% exposure but will change drastically soon. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction.

➤ Conclusion: Prices are trending down but also staying within a range. Most signs show bearish continuation. Easy to get whipsawed here.