SPY Bull Flag - Resolve up or down?

2013년 1월 9일

The run up from the 134 level to 146 is a flag pole and the price action for the last 4 days is a bull flag or banner. Many times these are times of consolidation after a run and further run up is quite possible. The flip side is that we are at 6 month highs and a rest here is quite possible.

Looking at the daily chart of the SPY (S&P500 Index) and I see two possible outcomes in the next day or so:

- We test the 144.76 level and break down through it. If we do, we could be headed to 143-144.
- We test the 144.76 level resist and break out of the downward channel to the upside.

Looking at the SPY intraday 5 minute chart below and you can see the downward channel in more detail.

I would think we are going to test the low 144.76, which could be the 5th leg of this current elliott wave. If we break up out of the downward channel, the 145.65 green line would be a resistance buy point. Would like to see a move above with some volume.