SPY Monthly Megaphones - Longer term SP500 buying plan

8월 5일

TLDR: Flat on stocks, waiting for very deep discounts several years in the future

Details:
Expecting it to make another megaphone shape similar to the one it made from 2017 to 2020.

The idea is it will hunt for liquidity under the 350 swing. This means to watch for a buying zone in the region of 372 to 290 from around July 2025 to May 2026.

This zone also lines up with the lines of several long term pitchforks and gives exit targets along those forks' medians.

Reasons to expect so much bearishness include:

• Nancy Pelosi, Buffet selling at the top
  
• Intel CEO praying on twitter
  
• Unrest in UK
  
• Tensions/war in Gaza, Ukraine, Iran
  
• Kramer saying it's not the end of the world
  

If those situations resolve then it may not need to hunt deeply below 350 and in fact the 400 price zone may be a better re-entry spot.

But if the overall macro news stories continue to be saturated with uncertainty then it's much better to wait for deeply discounted prices rather than catch a falling knife.

8월 28일

노트

Warren Buffett recently sold a large amount of Bank of America stock and is sitting on a huge pile of cash. So I am continuing with the plan to wait for much lower SP500 prices.

The weekly chart has shown it might potentially make a new high and so it could make another fib extension upward but I think that will be short lived on the longer term scale, on the order of months or years.

Nvidia released good earnings today but its price dumped initially which indicates a lackluster response to even the strongest of Wall Street darlings, so I get the sense that the markets are going to end up going sideways, cause boredom in retail investors, and eventually a slump.

When Buffett starts buying stocks again that will probably be where I will be looking to buy AI tech stocks like MSFT, TSLA and similar.