I Spy A Fed Guy; Two Roads Diverge...Take Less Traveled?!

2019년 6월 10일

Terrific rally to the 0.786 Fibo; looks like a slamdown at 290 today. We all expected a rally, but this one blew us away. Now we are back in the middle; higher prices but <ATH.

Got a Shooting Star Doji at the Fibo. Looking back I marked not less than 12 similar instances in past >year. Pullback seems imminent; look carefully, however, you may find at least three similar Doji's that fooled us. Cautiously shorting in anticipation of trade and Fed combo worries leading up to FOMC meet next week. No guarantees in this game.

Two roads diverge at the meeting: a rate cut will trigger massive upside explosion and race to new ATH in July. EW theory suggests we may be in a 2nd of 5th wave, if so, a 3rd-of-5th would be terrifically bullish, a final blowoff meltup to cap the final surge of the Great Bull. These Elliot Waves are always and only clear in the Retrospectometer.

FOMC Disappointment... well, you know.

Trade at your own risk; GLTA!

2019년 6월 11일

액티브 트레이드

Blowoff gap up failed post inflation report- no incentive for a rate cut.

Looks like it has turned Tues; looks like the pattern for top in Feb, Mar 2018 and 4 Mar, 01 May 2019- gap up above star, then pivot reversal. I bet on lower soon.

2019년 6월 12일

노트

Market holds it breath and marks time. In US 30, 15/15 up/down on Weds. Futurz -100 overnite but trades +/-30 in AM; it's just waiting IMO. S&P =/-4 pips, hardly a selloff. Closed shorts for modest gains, as R/R is poor now. Some days it's better to not be in the market!

2019년 6월 13일

액티브 트레이드

We got a double inverted H&S; on the hourly charts, and on the 5m charts in the 11 AM deep dip. It's a setup for meltup. Went long calls, flipped some puts in the AM.

2019년 6월 24일

노트

Seems to be headed for 1.618 Fibo at 301.8. Might revisit 291 first b4 blowup.

2019년 6월 29일

노트

Definitely moving higher. Probly gonna get a big pop on 1 July and rally on light volume into the holiday week on foolish trade optimism. Friday 5 July after the 4th will probly balloon higher as major players will be at the beach and distribution will be light. Expect more chop and churn thereafter; possibly new ATH by 03 September.