SPY Paths Moving Forward

8월 20일

SPY is at an interesting spot, it has reclaimed the downward trendline that started in early August, but is yet to reclaim the uptrend from April. We also have ATH shortly above. I could see a test of that area leading to a rejection that may bounce and eventually continue higher if it can hold the trendline.

To the downside, if it breaks below tomorrow or soon, my first target would be the gap fill below around 545. I think anywhere from the 530-540 area could as well. That's a big range, but these are decently long term trends and volatility is elevated recently so we can definitely see that area hit quickly if we do sell off and get a fakeout above rather than a breakout.