⬆️ Break Out, 24th November 2022

🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈

➤ On the eve of Thanksgiving, SPY broke out and closed above the recent high by the tiniest of margins. Long only investors will be happy. I'm guessing a few more Turkeys will make it to the dinner table. The sacrifice of the Turkey may be premature if the break out is not confirmed by further Bullish price action post the holiday. 🦃

➤ VIX is fast approaching the 20 level where it starts to get interesting for the Bears. If the VIX manages to rebound higher, it could mean the end of the Bull run. If we were to follow the 29th March and 16th August examples, then price needs to hit a resistance level too. I have 411/4110 marked for SPY/SPX500.

➤ Note that the up move since the yearly low is NOT a "Change of Character" - see the weekly SPY chart insert. If prices break lower, it confirms that this Bullish move is just a Bear market rally.

➤ I remain long with a +68% long exposure. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction.

➤ Conclusion: Not a time to celebrate for the Bulls.