A Perfect Storm

2022년 8월 11일

My August prediction may be toast now.

420 on spy puts us right at 0.5 reversal from Jan 2022 High of 479.98

CPI came in lower than expected and the reaction was a gap in RTH at 411.35.

Volume has been really low during this move higher as shown by volume bubbles (size and transparency)

RSI is approaching overbought on daily.

Still, I haven’t been looking at both Bear and Bull Cases lately so I’m going to start again.

Best case we see .618 retrace before the next CPI.

I’m watching to see a close above the 420 before thinking about a move to 434.

Otherwise we could fill the CPI gap sooner than later and consolidation at 410.

VIX is compressing and continue to compress as low as 16 at this rate.

10Y dropped with yesterdays CPI print and DXY is breaking down.

Seems like a perfect storm.

September being the next set of events that could bring this low volume bear rally to an end.

2022년 8월 11일

노트

OPEN jumped above the R1 (.5) and seems to have found support... for now.

Resistance is Futile.

2022년 8월 11일

노트

Bulls still holding...

SPY wants to fill that gap though.

2022년 8월 11일

노트

Like a Glove...

Now watch ELON park this biotch at 420.69 today.

2022년 8월 11일

노트

Close. Very Close.

2022년 8월 12일

노트

Again. Overnight Futures creeped above the 0.5fib level but holds trendless. Supportive again, I half expect the week to close out at 420.69 since the return of meme stocks is evident across markets.



Be Warned. There is a gap on the daily on spy at 411 below that if 0.5 broke we would make a quick return to pre-cpi levels.