SPY bulltrap again bef plunge;BO of 400/380 may see 350/320/280

2022년 8월 26일

This is a SPY weekly chart after the Friday FED speech signaling continued hawkishness till inflation drops to 2%. Spy has a history of making bulltraps (higher highs on this weekly chart) before plunging as seen in my several boxes. It was rejected by the black downtrend line from the 476.44 ATH (see black falling wedge) & also rejected by the horizontal neckline of the H&S from top at around 330.
BULLISH SCENARIO: If 362.17 June low is the bottom for this ABC correction, then SPY should make a higher low at either the psychological 400 or 380 (previous H&S destination & also the maximum Fib 0.786 retracement of the latest June rally). From here a new ATH is coming in 4Q2022 when inflation drops lower that 4% & the FED pivots.
BEARISH CASE: SPY will not hold the 362.17 low if 400 & 380 fails. The final targets of this ABC correction may be the ff:
*350 which is the 1.618 FIB EXT of this ABC, the 0.50 retracement from pandemic low to ATH
*320 which is the 2.0 FIB EXT of ABC, the 0.618 retracement from pandemic to ATH & also near the 0.382 retracement from 2009 bottom to ATH
*280 which is the 2.618 FIB EXT of ABC, the 0.786 retracement from pandemic low to ATH & also near the 0.5 retracement from 2009 Bottom to ATH
These estimates should be considered as +/- zones & not exact levels. The pandemic low of 211.11 is not
likely to be retested.
Not trading advice