WYCKOFFIAN DISTRIBUTION OUTLOOK FOR SPY

2015년 1월 5일

A possible completion of Phace C of the Wyckoffian distribution phase. Phase A shows the MU (Mark Up Phase) on strong volume. Followed by a PSY (Preliminary Supply) on lower volume, then a BC (Buying Climax) on stronger volume, indicating a potential slowing of the current trend. This is followed by the AR (Automatic Reaction), which is the first increase in selling seen. Followed by ST (Secondary Test) of the buying climax high on lower volume, indicating lack of demand by the "smart money" leading to the first significant sell off on high volume establishing the "ICE" AKA support level. This support level is strengthened by the identification of the UTAD (Upthrust After Distribution) wave on high volume, this highlights the Wyckoff law of effort v. result. As you can see there is a large range bar closing at the bottom third and unable to go much higher finding resistance at the previous ST level. The TR (Trading Range) is identified by the high of the Upthrust bar and the ICE support level. Price could meander between these two levels for the foreseeable future while the "smart money" continue to distribute their holdings at as high a price as possible before the market rolls over. If this holds true according to anticipated waves and associated volumes as shown then we should expect price to reach the $182.50 level and potentially further depending on the strength of the mark down phase. As stated on the chart, this move may not occur immediately, with a likely trading range occurring prior to FTI (First time over Ice). Also, it is my interpretation of Wyckoff method that it is more reactionary rather than predictive in nature, requiring confirmation in wave direction and volume. This confirmation would be seen as ND (No Demand) pullbacks as indicated on the chart at the LPSY (Last Point of Supply) and BUI (Backing Up to ICE) levels, followed by increasing volume on down waves. These would be the first entries in the beginning of a downtrend with further entries in the MD (Mark Down Phase) on ND (No Demand) pullbacks. Initial stops would be placed above swing highs and trailed behind these same swing highs. The ideal entry would be a scaling in approach at the levels mentioned with exiting at high volume down waves that could act of SC (Selling Climax) and a potential reversal. Also, Watch out for a break of the upper range on strong volume as this would negate the distribution phase argument and would likely lead to a continuation of the current uptrend leading to resistance becoming support.