Oversold indicators VS structure..
After all my Homework, that's what I come away with..
Oversold indicators are all saying that by Mid week there will begin a rally.
Structure says by the end of November we will see low that is lower than the October's close.
Below I'll explain.
Let's start with the Oversold indicators. The biggest signal I see that the market should bounce starting mid week Is that most sectors,indexes, and stocks are outside their weekly Bollinger band.
Typically when that happens, the following weeks candle rallies back inside the bollingerband and sometimes close above the previous candle; for spy this would mean a move back up to 425.
Also the 4hour MFI on spy is still oversold at 2% rebound levels.
This is just a weekly bounce so the rally could fade in a couple of weeks.
Now let's look at Structure.
Biggest red flag is the 3 black crows on the monthly charts of the indexes and most sectors since August hang man reversal candle.
Please Google 3 black crows candle pattern.
This candle stick pattern when formed after a major rally usually indicates a 4th red candle and a lower low is incoming.
This means that since the weekly is oversold, We could rally to mid Nov but by December first we will be back to October's lows and probably lower..
That's why my target is 425 first on spy then 390 by December.
Whenever my technicals tell me of such a dramatic move, I start going through the economic calender looking for events. The biggest event after the interest rate hike is the Government funding which is slated for mid Nov; If the politicians can't get their stuff together this could be the match for the flush.
NYA weekly chart
Biggest indicator that this correction isn't over is the rising wedge that's been unfolding. If you want to know where every other stocks outside tech is going you to need chart NYA.
The length of a rising wedge is the measured move of the pattern.
With that being said, we still have 10% drop left to go. To put that in perspective, we've corrected 10% already from this year's high, so get ready for an encore.
This most likely means Spy below 390 at some point in 2024.
NYA
Daily chart
H&S playing out here, broke the neckline Friday. Similar H&S on the dow too which means we probably could see 404-408 on spy before the rally begins
Dow jones Daily chart
Blue lines are my H&S target.
The first blue line is at 32,246 gap close . If the dow bounces off here then that means spy 408 only.
2nd blue line is the H&S completion.
31,744.. this means spy 404.
If you notice on both NYA and Dow, they are both nearing support on their downtrend so I do expect a bounce this week.
IWM = Terrible
Approaching lower bband on monthly chart.
Weekly chart is more oversold here than in 2022.
Structure is terrible here, we are halfway through closing gap at 160..
If we break 160, then 155 gap close is next.
Smaller time frame the price is showing a falling wedge that could push this back to 171 if 160 holds
XLK sector (Msft/Aapl)
Weekly chart
Nearing support of yellow channel. I expect a bounce and rally this week off trendline support.
Notice the narrowing of the yellow channel which means these rallies and flushes will become volatile as space narrows. This is the biggest sector , so If we reject at trendline resistance again 390 on spy is definitely incoming.
150 is my target for XLK correction
SMH weekly chart
(Nvda/Amd)
You can't see the major gap at 136 on the weekly but I placed a line there so you can see the price action. 136 support aligns with yellow trendline here so as long as that holds I think chips will rally here back to resistance but on the next leg down we will head to 123 and chips will take a major hair cut. Monthly chart 3 black crows.
XLC
Googl,Meta,Nflx
Structure is terrible..
Monthly 3 black crows
Weekly selling volume .
If tech dips this week, I the stocks in this sector to lead the way. If market rallies then I expect a small participation but I'd stay away from anything in this sector as far a dip buy goes
Vix
Rising wedge
Or
Inverted H&S
What If said both ?
As long as we don't break 16 the Inverted H&S is still a play. The drop to 16 on vix would pump the spy to 425-430
Spy monthly
Broadening channel here.
Went parabolic in 2020 and broke out. Retested breakout back in 2022. I think we retest that channel again.
Fib levels are from 2009 low and All time high.
Spy weekly chart.
Like I said , I'm looking for 390 test by early December then a End of year rally.
Spy daily chart
I've circled the last 2 bounces to show you how a double bottom was formed before a rally started . Which means expect volatility early next week into Wed. Finished outside Daily bollingerbands which means Monday they most likely buy up any gap down with upside targets 412, 414.
I'll go over smaller time frames on spy tomorrow premarket for day trading purposes.
After all my Homework, that's what I come away with..
Oversold indicators are all saying that by Mid week there will begin a rally.
Structure says by the end of November we will see low that is lower than the October's close.
Below I'll explain.
Let's start with the Oversold indicators. The biggest signal I see that the market should bounce starting mid week Is that most sectors,indexes, and stocks are outside their weekly Bollinger band.
Typically when that happens, the following weeks candle rallies back inside the bollingerband and sometimes close above the previous candle; for spy this would mean a move back up to 425.
Also the 4hour MFI on spy is still oversold at 2% rebound levels.
This is just a weekly bounce so the rally could fade in a couple of weeks.
Now let's look at Structure.
Biggest red flag is the 3 black crows on the monthly charts of the indexes and most sectors since August hang man reversal candle.
Please Google 3 black crows candle pattern.
This candle stick pattern when formed after a major rally usually indicates a 4th red candle and a lower low is incoming.
This means that since the weekly is oversold, We could rally to mid Nov but by December first we will be back to October's lows and probably lower..
That's why my target is 425 first on spy then 390 by December.
Whenever my technicals tell me of such a dramatic move, I start going through the economic calender looking for events. The biggest event after the interest rate hike is the Government funding which is slated for mid Nov; If the politicians can't get their stuff together this could be the match for the flush.
NYA weekly chart
Biggest indicator that this correction isn't over is the rising wedge that's been unfolding. If you want to know where every other stocks outside tech is going you to need chart NYA.
The length of a rising wedge is the measured move of the pattern.
With that being said, we still have 10% drop left to go. To put that in perspective, we've corrected 10% already from this year's high, so get ready for an encore.
This most likely means Spy below 390 at some point in 2024.
NYA
Daily chart
H&S playing out here, broke the neckline Friday. Similar H&S on the dow too which means we probably could see 404-408 on spy before the rally begins
Dow jones Daily chart
Blue lines are my H&S target.
The first blue line is at 32,246 gap close . If the dow bounces off here then that means spy 408 only.
2nd blue line is the H&S completion.
31,744.. this means spy 404.
If you notice on both NYA and Dow, they are both nearing support on their downtrend so I do expect a bounce this week.
IWM = Terrible
Weekly chart is more oversold here than in 2022.
Structure is terrible here, we are halfway through closing gap at 160..
If we break 160, then 155 gap close is next.
Smaller time frame the price is showing a falling wedge that could push this back to 171 if 160 holds
XLK sector (Msft/Aapl)
Weekly chart
Nearing support of yellow channel. I expect a bounce and rally this week off trendline support.
Notice the narrowing of the yellow channel which means these rallies and flushes will become volatile as space narrows. This is the biggest sector , so If we reject at trendline resistance again 390 on spy is definitely incoming.
150 is my target for XLK correction
SMH weekly chart
(Nvda/Amd)
You can't see the major gap at 136 on the weekly but I placed a line there so you can see the price action. 136 support aligns with yellow trendline here so as long as that holds I think chips will rally here back to resistance but on the next leg down we will head to 123 and chips will take a major hair cut. Monthly chart 3 black crows.
XLC
Googl,Meta,Nflx
Structure is terrible..
Weekly selling volume .
If tech dips this week, I the stocks in this sector to lead the way. If market rallies then I expect a small participation but I'd stay away from anything in this sector as far a dip buy goes
Vix
Rising wedge
Or
Inverted H&S
What If said both ?
As long as we don't break 16 the Inverted H&S is still a play. The drop to 16 on vix would pump the spy to 425-430
Spy monthly
Went parabolic in 2020 and broke out. Retested breakout back in 2022. I think we retest that channel again.
Fib levels are from 2009 low and All time high.
Spy weekly chart.
Like I said , I'm looking for 390 test by early December then a End of year rally.
Spy daily chart
I'll go over smaller time frames on spy tomorrow premarket for day trading purposes.
코멘트:
Es 2hour chart
Fallingwedge here but much larger than the spy.
Trendline resistance is at 4175 with stiff price action around 4180.
This is another reason I don't like opening longs at the open; If ES fails to break out and pulls back so will the spy.
Fallingwedge here but much larger than the spy.
Trendline resistance is at 4175 with stiff price action around 4180.
This is another reason I don't like opening longs at the open; If ES fails to break out and pulls back so will the spy.
코멘트:
If you traded against V shape recoveries you'd make money 8 out of 10 times.
Spy.
Below 412.10
and and gap close incoming.
As long as qqq holds 346 and Dow 32,600 I doubt much selling will occur.
Spy.
Below 412.10
and and gap close incoming.
As long as qqq holds 346 and Dow 32,600 I doubt much selling will occur.
코멘트:
Intra day spike of vix help close gap at 20.80 via small double bottom..
Vix breaks over 20.80 and market heads lower.
Vix breaks over 20.80 and market heads lower.
코멘트:
412-415.. chop zone spy.
Can't swing short unless
Spy breaks 412
Dow breaks below 32600
Qqq loses 345
..
Consumer confidence tomorrow 30min after open... I'll be back on later
Can't swing short unless
Spy breaks 412
Dow breaks below 32600
Qqq loses 345
..
Consumer confidence tomorrow 30min after open... I'll be back on later
코멘트:
Dow jones
1hour chart
Smaller falling wedge inside a bigger broadening wedge
Possible scenario
1hour chart
Smaller falling wedge inside a bigger broadening wedge
Possible scenario
코멘트:
Dow at wedge resistance
..
5min chart bearish divergence with rising wedge.. Market might flush to low of day
..
5min chart bearish divergence with rising wedge.. Market might flush to low of day
코멘트:
Vix 15min chart.. bouncing off trendline support
코멘트:
코멘트:
Vix broke down..
Still I don't like the long.
Tech froze up.
Qqq at 350 and IXIC at 200sma
Aapl event after our my influence things
Still I don't like the long.
Tech froze up.
Qqq at 350 and IXIC at 200sma
Aapl event after our my influence things
코멘트:
"After hours might"..
코멘트:
Technical bounce of Financials was needed ... Healthcare still oversold..
Dow now under 33,000 resistance.. ..
Watch QQQ 350 resistance and Dow 33,000.
If qqq can't break over 350 , the dow will need an encore to push spy higher
Dow now under 33,000 resistance.. ..
Watch QQQ 350 resistance and Dow 33,000.
If qqq can't break over 350 , the dow will need an encore to push spy higher
코멘트:
XLK
Biggest sector
Aapl and msft
1hour chart.
Pushed back up to the H&S neckline at 163.50... also trendline resistance is there too.
Qqq won't go much higher without this sector
Biggest sector
Aapl and msft
1hour chart.
Pushed back up to the H&S neckline at 163.50... also trendline resistance is there too.
Qqq won't go much higher without this sector
코멘트:
Spy 1hour chart..
Since I don't like V shape recoveries I'd like to see this happen to make another leg for a double bottom to 425.
Let's see what happens tomorrow
Keep your eye on spy weekly 50sma
Since I don't like V shape recoveries I'd like to see this happen to make another leg for a double bottom to 425.
Let's see what happens tomorrow
Keep your eye on spy weekly 50sma
코멘트:
Vix 1hour chart
. Another falling wedge building here.
I highlighted the previous falling wedges.
Vix should dip a lil more to around 18.90, then look for a rebound back to 20.20..
How does this translate to the spy?
The dip to 18.80 should allow spy a push to
417.61 gap close or 418.00 weekly 50sma.
After tagging 418 I wouldn't want to be long this. A vix bounce back to 20 could send spy back to 414-415.
. Another falling wedge building here.
I highlighted the previous falling wedges.
Vix should dip a lil more to around 18.90, then look for a rebound back to 20.20..
How does this translate to the spy?
The dip to 18.80 should allow spy a push to
417.61 gap close or 418.00 weekly 50sma.
After tagging 418 I wouldn't want to be long this. A vix bounce back to 20 could send spy back to 414-415.
코멘트:
I don't like tech calls unless QQQ can push over 351.. I think tech got a head start on the bounce Friday and now the spy and dow are catching up.
Qqq over 351 and 353 is next.
Supports
348.50
346.50
Qqq over 351 and 353 is next.
Supports
348.50
346.50
코멘트:
Consumer confidence out at 10a.m est
Spy 15min chart
I'm about 75% on board for this wedge but we could push up and break out for 418.
Looking for 2 directions to playout today
Spy 15min chart
I'm about 75% on board for this wedge but we could push up and break out for 418.
Looking for 2 directions to playout today
코멘트:
NYA(NYSE)
15min chart.
Might roll over and dump today
15min chart.
Might roll over and dump today
코멘트:
Qqq bounced off trendline support and 346.50..
Still under resistance though
Still under resistance though
코멘트:
Vix 21ema at 19.00
Market will decide there
Market will decide there
코멘트:
Low volume BS..
Chop chop chop
Chop chop chop
코멘트:
Qqq 15 min chart.
Price action since last Thursday..
You could argue a bear flag but it could also be accumulation. Until a break up or down , we range trade
Price action since last Thursday..
You could argue a bear flag but it could also be accumulation. Until a break up or down , we range trade
코멘트:
I've been stopped out twice today going both long and short. Was green but stayed in the trade for more than 10 secs 😂.
Choppy AF
Choppy AF
코멘트:
2 things bulls want to see.
1. Nasdaq or IXIC break above its 200sma
Been trading under it all day
2. Vix break below 19.00 or 21ema.
Market won't go higher without that.
.also sellers are weak
1. Nasdaq or IXIC break above its 200sma
Been trading under it all day
2. Vix break below 19.00 or 21ema.
Market won't go higher without that.
.also sellers are weak
코멘트:
Nq 4hr chart..
White channel is a broadening wedge
Yellow would be considered an ascending triangle. Which is usually bullish but the entry is has to come from the bottom; in this case, The entry is coming from the top.
So I'm neutral, but I will tell you that the breakout or break down happens tomorrow . If we break to the upside then our first resistance would be the broadening wedge
White channel is a broadening wedge
Yellow would be considered an ascending triangle. Which is usually bullish but the entry is has to come from the bottom; in this case, The entry is coming from the top.
So I'm neutral, but I will tell you that the breakout or break down happens tomorrow . If we break to the upside then our first resistance would be the broadening wedge
코멘트:
17.88 next vix support.
200ema
351 qqq resistance
418 spy resistance
200ema
351 qqq resistance
418 spy resistance
코멘트:
Don't use this to trade earning pls.
Smh chip sector
Gap support at 136 held and trendline support.
Printing a hammer candle on the daily ahead of AMD earnings
Smh chip sector
Gap support at 136 held and trendline support.
Printing a hammer candle on the daily ahead of AMD earnings
코멘트:
AMD after hours
. ADP nonfarm employment premarket tomorrow.
Catch you'll later ✌
. ADP nonfarm employment premarket tomorrow.
Catch you'll later ✌
코멘트:
Vix cci and 1hour RSI oversold.
Money flow on the NQ and ES hourly overbought
Vix daily chart. Broke thru wedge , sitting right above 200ma. With wedges sometimes you have to watch out for the backtest.
Money flow on the NQ and ES hourly overbought
Vix daily chart. Broke thru wedge , sitting right above 200ma. With wedges sometimes you have to watch out for the backtest.
코멘트:
Wouldn't put much into today's move .. no volume insight anywhere. Still consider this a technical bounce with weak sellers.
코멘트:
Es 30min chart..
1hour MFI went oversold, Bounced off support premarket and
ADP gave it a bump..
Two resistance here
White trend line
Yellow trendline
Currently pulling back from white trendline. Range is tight so expect choppy day
1hour MFI went oversold, Bounced off support premarket and
ADP gave it a bump..
Two resistance here
White trend line
Yellow trendline
Currently pulling back from white trendline. Range is tight so expect choppy day
코멘트:
Nq 30min chart..
Took another look at this from different angles.
Definitely rising wedge here.
Choppy trading until it breaks
Took another look at this from different angles.
Definitely rising wedge here.
Choppy trading until it breaks
코멘트:
So I showed you how ES and Nq are both at week long resistance. If they pullback from here, then spy and qqq will also. Use that for an edge on your trades.
Be on later in the afternoon
✌
Be on later in the afternoon
✌
코멘트:
Qqq 30min chart.
360 or 345..
Even if we tag 360 I think it's a wrap up there.
355 pivot area
360 or 345..
Even if we tag 360 I think it's a wrap up there.
355 pivot area
코멘트:
Vix 1hour chart
At support here.. Channel trade.
Gets back over 18.00 and marker bleeds.
Below 18 market is bullish
At support here.. Channel trade.
Gets back over 18.00 and marker bleeds.
Below 18 market is bullish
코멘트:
Money flow on the Futures are really Overbought, especially ES 4hour chart. Spy could pop on Powell but technicals tell me, we see 414 by friday-monday
코멘트:
Qqq 2 hour RSI..
360 gap close then we should sell again.. most likely after aapl earnings
360 gap close then we should sell again.. most likely after aapl earnings
코멘트:
Morning.. the candlestick pattern at the close yesterday was 3 white soldiers on the daily which indicates a 4 green day.
Vix showing opposite 3 black crows candle pattern which indicates 4th red day.
Riding off momentum of ADP an as expected rate decision .
I expect a pullback at the open but I don't think we finish red today.
October job report and aapl earnings I think they'll use as an excuse to cool this off.
Vix daily chart.
Look for a bounce around 15.70 major support area
Vix daily RSI
Nq 2hour chart.
I was right about the ascending triangle here. The move is completed and then some. Look for a retest of breakout.
So what I am saying is the leg up is done but we may not go red today. Look at today as a positioning for a pullback to come
I like 11/10.. 11/17 expirations.
One of the stocks I'm looking at is MSFT for the short.. if you follow me you know I was chasing this long here last week but got stopped out TWICE. Looks like the short is almost ready . Gap to close today at 350.90, bearish ascending broadening wedge will send this back to 320 in the next 2weeks
Vix showing opposite 3 black crows candle pattern which indicates 4th red day.
Riding off momentum of ADP an as expected rate decision .
I expect a pullback at the open but I don't think we finish red today.
October job report and aapl earnings I think they'll use as an excuse to cool this off.
Vix daily chart.
Look for a bounce around 15.70 major support area
Vix daily RSI
Nq 2hour chart.
I was right about the ascending triangle here. The move is completed and then some. Look for a retest of breakout.
So what I am saying is the leg up is done but we may not go red today. Look at today as a positioning for a pullback to come
I like 11/10.. 11/17 expirations.
One of the stocks I'm looking at is MSFT for the short.. if you follow me you know I was chasing this long here last week but got stopped out TWICE. Looks like the short is almost ready . Gap to close today at 350.90, bearish ascending broadening wedge will send this back to 320 in the next 2weeks
코멘트:
XLK
Daily chart
(Msft/aapl)
Resistance at 170.70
Opening up near it and will probably melt up to it today going into aapl earnings.
Market can't go anywhere without this sector
Daily chart
(Msft/aapl)
Resistance at 170.70
Opening up near it and will probably melt up to it today going into aapl earnings.
Market can't go anywhere without this sector
코멘트:
10yr gap closed
코멘트:
Some tech went into today Overbought
Meta
Msft
Amd
Amzn
While others are playing catch up
Nvda
Tsla
Overall things still Overbought but bulls Mf'ers want a reason (Catalyst) to sell. We will see what happens with job report tomorrow
Meta
Msft
Amd
Amzn
While others are playing catch up
Nvda
Tsla
Overall things still Overbought but bulls Mf'ers want a reason (Catalyst) to sell. We will see what happens with job report tomorrow
코멘트:
Ridiculous melt up..
Vix bottomed
Dow and Spy both at bear channel resistance
Dow right at its 200sma
Spy at its channel resistance
Iwm at 170 resistance here.
XLF bank sector pushed up to resistance also with the dow
Indexes moved 5% in 4 trading days.
Those moves up usually bring a 50% retracement within days.
Being that we are really over bought and at resistance I would be looking for things to roll over tomorrow or Monday.
I opened up some 11/10 132p
on Amzn and will add one any pop with a 141 stop loss.
Vix bottomed
Dow and Spy both at bear channel resistance
Dow right at its 200sma
Spy at its channel resistance
Iwm at 170 resistance here.
XLF bank sector pushed up to resistance also with the dow
Indexes moved 5% in 4 trading days.
Those moves up usually bring a 50% retracement within days.
Being that we are really over bought and at resistance I would be looking for things to roll over tomorrow or Monday.
I opened up some 11/10 132p
on Amzn and will add one any pop with a 141 stop loss.
코멘트:
Nq daily chart.
Looking for a 14,600 retest
Before a hold over 15,000
Looking for a 14,600 retest
Before a hold over 15,000
코멘트:
This squeeze has no legs without Qqq.
With that being said,
Over 365 and qqq can push to 367.50
Below 364 and it's a short to 360
With that being said,
Over 365 and qqq can push to 367.50
Below 364 and it's a short to 360
코멘트:
IWM is finishing up its 3 white solders candle pattern.
Spy stuck under its 50sma
Spy stuck under its 50sma
코멘트:
Ixic or nasdaq tagged its bear channel resistance
코멘트:
NYSE/NYA
Pulled back at 200sma
So did IWM after 175 gap close.
Cylicals won't go higher without these two
Pulled back at 200sma
So did IWM after 175 gap close.
Cylicals won't go higher without these two
코멘트:
Chip sector
SMH
(NVDA/AMD)
Back up to resistance, maybe one more green day in it before another correction
SMH
(NVDA/AMD)
Back up to resistance, maybe one more green day in it before another correction
코멘트:
XLC
Googl,Meta,NFLX
Almost back yo 68.00 resistance, maybe one more green day in it
Googl,Meta,NFLX
Almost back yo 68.00 resistance, maybe one more green day in it
코멘트:
Red week for me.... biggest melt up since March 2022.
Next week I think we head back down.. biggest indicator that this was a squeeze was the Covid tech stocks rallying
Roku
Pypl
Sq
Zm
Two.
Those stocks are heavily shorted and has lagged behind the market for 2yrs so when you see them rallying you know it's a squeeze
Next week I think we head back down.. biggest indicator that this was a squeeze was the Covid tech stocks rallying
Roku
Pypl
Sq
Zm
Two.
Those stocks are heavily shorted and has lagged behind the market for 2yrs so when you see them rallying you know it's a squeeze
코멘트:
Vix at 15 support.
2yr support here.
Loses 15 support and it heads back to 13.00
2yr support here.
Loses 15 support and it heads back to 13.00
코멘트:
Did some homework..
I'll do a new post tomorrow .
Biggest takeaway for me on Friday was the
Last 4hour candle on most indexes and sectors.
Shooting star or gravestone doji.
Should kick off next with selling
I'll do a new post tomorrow .
Biggest takeaway for me on Friday was the
Last 4hour candle on most indexes and sectors.
Shooting star or gravestone doji.
Should kick off next with selling
Falling wedge. Not my favorite bullish pattern🙄.
Breakout over yellow line or 412.50
Upside targets
414.00
Over 414.00 and we head to 415.50
I doubt we break over 415 today.
IWM,
Same falling wedge here..
Breakout over yellow line or 163.75
Upside targets
165.77 gap resistance
Qqq 30min chart..
Broadening wedge here bigger picture.
Resistance at 348.50
Over 348.50 and upside targets is
350 gap close and trendline resistance
I don't like the fomo long strategy at the open.. I'll see what happens after the first 30min