S&P500: The End of the Bull Trap

업데이트됨

Hello guys

Both the medium term and long term moving averages on this 1h time frame are pointing downwards. If we can't manage to put in a higher high above the recent green downtrend line, we are definitely going to see a retest of the green upwards pointing short term support line. Also, as the 1000h moving average already broke below this zone, IMO we are heading straight into the lower support zone at around 2740 points. If support breaks at 2740 points, we are going to put in new lows. And those lows IMO will be the confirmation for the end of the bull trap. As the 2740 support level is horizontal and goes back to April 15 really, it might not be all too easy to strike through...

As of yet, the situation does not look super bad. We are still rather indecisive, and if we manage to maintain a short term uptrend at the green diagonal support, we might still retest at the 1.618 retracement... which was my first idea actually.

I'm not sure what's going to happen, I think more than we see a fight between bulls and bears right now, rather we are also seeing a "neutral" perspective... Still, my own bias is long term bearish.

Yesterday I heard "the market is pricing in unemployment numbers". Well, another reason for me not to make any comments about fundamentals...

Love to hear your comments, have a nice weekend.

노트

The 2740 point horizontal support goes back to April 12, not 15.

노트

**April 9**