S&P500 Rising Wedge: Getting rejected below 3000 and then what?

2020년 4월 17일

Hello everyone

While the S&P looks like it has broken the bigger downtrend line it also trades in a rising wedge pattern, which means the downside trend should continue once we hit resistance.

For me personally, I am not 100% convinced that we are going to see another big drawdown to say the -0.5 retracement. It is hard to predict COVID and it is hard to predict the economy and fundamentals play a huge role right now. However, as infection rates slowly decrease and business seem to be getting opened again soon, optimism could come back quick and financial markets could probably recover from the crash sooner than expected. More and more good news about people fighting the disease and developing therapies will be a boost for the stock market I think. In the next 2 months I think it is however totally possible we will see another drawdown to the 0 retracement because of bad earnings.

Let me know what you think!

2020년 4월 17일

노트

Also, what I forgot to mention for my not-so-small bullishness is the 100 MA, as you can see at least in the short term we might see price climbing further. Also, what do you think about the influence of inflation in this scenario?