S&P 500 profit taking during earnings risk-off sentiment

2016년 7월 19일

The S&P 500 could decline in the next days after the German DAX failed to hold its key 10000 point level (after the important German investor sentiment index ZEW fell sharply this week). And if US investors don't care about the chaos in Europe, there is still the possibility of increasing risk-off sentiment during the black-out period of buybacks during the current release of company earnings data.


Scenario A "fast brief dip":

• Short entry: 2170
  
• Short target:2125
  

Scenario B: "bearish deep decline"

• Short entry: 2159
  
• Short target:2087
  

2016년 7월 31일

노트

UPDATE: 12 days later after publishing the chart.

It is truly stunning how strongly the S&P 500 has been stemming itself against the downtrend of the largest company stocks (by market cap) in the US (and the world). Using the new Tradingview screener function here is an overview when the largest company stocks peaked in July 2016, while the S&P 500 index kept on going sideways in July without a similar sized pullback:

Exxon (US), peaked July 15:


Berkshire (US), peaked July 19


Amazon (US), peaked July 12


Johnson & Johnson (US), peaked July 20


GE (US), peaked July 20


AT&T (US), peaked July 5


Wells Fargo (US), peaked July 14


JP Morgan (US), peaked July 14


Wall Mart (US), peaked July 11


Verizon (US), peaked July 5


Procter & Gamble (US), peaked July 14


Pfizer (US), peaked July 15


Shell (non-US), peaked July 14


Novartis (non-US), peaked July 22


Alibaba (non-US), peaked July 21


Budweiser (non-US), peaked July 1


Chevron (US), peaked July 14


Petro China (non-US), peaked July 14


Coca-Cola (US), peaked July 14


Visa (US), peaked July 25


Oracle (US), peaked July 15


Intel (US), peaked July 20


Merck (US), peaked July 13


Disney (US), peaked July 13


Cisco (US), peaked July 26


Taiwan Semiconductor (non-US), peaked July 27


Unilever (non-US), peaked July 1


UnitedHealth Group (US), peaked July 20


Altria (US), peaked July 05


Citigroup (US), peaked July 15


Brystal Meyers (US), peaked July 15


Schlumberger (US), peaked July 22


Gilead (US), peaked July 25


3M (US), peaked July 20


McDonalds (US), peaked July 22


Kraft Heinz (US), peaked July 8


CVS (US), peaked July 14