FED rate cuts: predictive indicator?

2023년 4월 15일

I saw these loosely drawn charts on social media claiming that "The majority of the decline in these bear markets occurred after the FED's Pivot".

I wanted to check for myself...

I guess it all comes down to the little trick of perfectly identifying bear markets... in hindsight...

But if you look at what happens at the first rate cut, it is only a weak predictor of a bear market or of the continuation of such a bear market.