S&P 500 Monthly: Are the Songs of the market "sirens" calling?

2020년 4월 15일

'Sirens' - "each of a group of creatures who were part woman, part bird, whose singing lured sailors on to the
rocks" or "a wowan whose sexual attractiveness is regarded as dangerous to men" (say what?).
Oxford English Dictionary

While the minimum Weekly chart 'c' wave (not shown) has been established (assuming a straightforward corrective
move back up) with the new recovery high this week (2851.85 today as this is penned), we cannot assume the
Weekly 'c' wave has completed just yet (nor, the 'b' on the Monthly chart for that matter).

One of the loudest 'sirens' may be the Weekly chart gap down between the 1st and 2nd weeks from the February high.
The gap resides between 3328.45 and 3259.81, beyond both the outlier .764 (3109.93) and .854 (3218.08) Fibonacci
retracement levels. Don't misunderstand, the gap does not 'have' to be filled on this move up we've
experiencing here of late. It would most likely be filled later (IMO), after the 'c' down on the Monthly chart had
completed.

Another possible 'siren', if the 'c' on the Weekly chart equaled the 'a'(not an uncommon occurrence), would be at
approx. 3024.06.

Our preferred 'siren', for now, is at roughly the .618 Fibonacci retracement level (2934.49).

Will 'X' mark the spot (~ .618 Fibonacci retracement level)? Next week could tell the tale.
As always, 'Boy Scout Motto' (i.e., use judicious trailing stops). The earliest the 'c' on the monthly chart could
be put in place would be next month (i.e., May). The 'b' on the monthly chart could persist until then ...