News based 50% drop in SPX

The forecast implied by the 161 fib failure is a downtrend that fails to break previous big highs and does not make a really significant low until 50% off the high.

There will be ups and downs in the middle, but when looked at in a broad context - 50% down off the high.

4150 is the 161 fib and it's testing it now.


This post is for the purposes of testing the effectiveness of TA in forecasting big moves, even if there's news. The TA can, in fact, also forecast the probability of big news. That's the thesis, and this is the objective test of it.