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1987 crash then and now

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I am on watch for signs of a resumptin of the downtrend this week. A repeat of 1987 seems very unlikely. However I am open minded. Look for a couple of doji candlesticks early this week or flat close. Then be on watch for a big red down bar that closes back down UNDER the downtrend line. If this happens, and it happens very swiftly, we must be open minded to a possible crash or mini crash scenario.

Other factors that could support this case are :

* The two recent gaps we had in the SPX, perhaps they want to get filled soon.

* 10year yield start to accelerate higher next few weeks ?

* October is not quite over yet. There is this idea that yes, stocks bottom in October and it is bull time again into bullish seasonal end of the year... but maybe it is different this time.

* the recent breakout, if it was fake could be a very painful trap to many in the market and lead to heavy selling on the realization ( or late realization) that the breakout was a trap

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UPDATE:

So far today looks like a pause day, pause in the uptrend. No progress up or down either way... so the question is, is this the pause that refreshes and back to an upside breakout, or the pause that turns into something much more sinister....

Scaling into some SPY puts now small size...

My feeling however is that IF we do get a massive rug pull to the downside, it will be very difficult to get positioned properly...

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well either this AB CD is going to work on the SPX or not, on the 30 minute chart

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I am focusing on SPX but admittedly tech is running with the ball to the upside... tough to be bearish here... and yet I sense we are going to get a rug pull soon.

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On the 8 HOUR bars chart of Spx500us there is a bearish bat pattern. This is a potential turning point signal. The harmonic patterns can be hit or miss. But when they are obeyed strictly is when they can give very good signals.

This pattern is almost 21 days in length which is significant.

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It looking like any near term 87 style collapse is probably not really gonna happen based on the early price action today... Unless by some miracle the market closes flat today or lower....

So the alternative is maybe just choppy action or an eventual northward breakout?

And in other news...Gold and silver on fire... that is where the real action seems to be lately...

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I see a red HSI sell arrow on the spx500US !!!!!! On the daily bars... I don't see it on the sp500 cash index...

Remember as I pointed out before there was a red HSI sell arrow on the START of the 1987 crash plunge down. You can see it in the original chart post above.

So the fact that we are seeing it now on symbol SPX500US is a potential concern.

Also I want to point out that the final peak price on October 6, 1987 was very near a full moon.

Guess what phase of the moon we have today ??? look up in the night sky :)

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Really amazing to me how the market pumped up today October 19th. What a huge potential trick. The Fed probably used all their bullets to pump the market on the anniversary day of the 87 debacle.

I have to admit that now I am extremely bearish again. We have a red sell arrow, bearish gartley on almost this entire corrective price structure. Have a bearish crab on the nasdaq composite. We have DAX and UKX indices andseveral others like Nikkei in a very odd position and clearly positioned for an unexpected plunge.

I want to go on record and say I am expecing and looking for a very big down red candle tomorrow. I think this rally was engineered as a means to get the hell out of the market (for the big players). A slingshot of sorts. We will know this is true if we start to see persistent down action at a steep slope.

Keep in mind it is 10 to 11 trading days until the next fed meeting. And guess how many trading days it was from the October 6, 1987 peak to the low at that time? 10 to 11 days...

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loading the boat on short term SPY puts here.... big time

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basically at previous all time highs.... back to flat.. i guess this scenario off the table... for now ?

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I guess I need to rename my username as 'flipflop'. I am back to short stance and waiting for the fall. The issue is that this mid week Wednesday is absolutely critical. A big red bar down today could lead into some follow through rest of week and then a very negative Friday could heavily push odds of a down Monday.... which could lead to a cascade... So it goes without saying that the ****close***** today is absolutely critical.

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I just received an alert on my phone that we are 100% illuminated full moon right now

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QQQ and tech is the canary in the coal mine today....

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qqq and tech still pissing into the wind..... is this the turning point for spx500usd ? the close today is essentially what matters the most

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adding to shorts here, I smell a rat

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And I have to say that Gold poised to surge higher seems to be sniffing out this supposed sp500 break to new highs... Seems like gold does not believe it will happen