SPX: an alternate EW count if 4216.45 breaks

2023년 10월 22일

SPX and markets overall are slaughtering bulls for the last couple of weeks. Now bloody Monday is the trending search on google search. If the last low breaks, I am not super convinced that market will go in a free fall. Even though anything is possible, there is a lot of support between 4150 and 4000. So, if we don't see some circuit breaking 5% down moves next week, it is very likely that the correction is on its last legs. However, breaking 4216.45 will also mean that the motive wave is over, and wave 4 count is invalidated. Instead, the macro will count as a diagonal ABC move for primary wave 3 with C leg to the upside following the current correction. And just like a motive wave 3, a C wave of diagonal wave ABC will also be quite strong. It might take SPX to close to 6000 in short few months.

So, either we will see a waterfall down to 3k or a melt up to 6k starting in the next couple of weeks. It will mean fast reflexes and market buys and sells to keep up.

2023년 10월 22일

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Bearish case:

2024년 2월 22일

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The bull case was spot on. Thankfully made me quite a bit of money!!