Where's the S&P headed?

2019년 8월 7일

Someone once told me that the S&P is the "All-Star Team", many have opinions on it, but almost impossible to find anyone who could consistently predict where it's headed.
This chart shows the bearish case, which seems reasonable except that Many people are seeing it and the S&P doesnt follow what people think will happen. With volatility at current levels, it's best to short or day trade it as direction isn't clear at this point.
Bearish case:
1- Megaphone top
2- Broken trendline
3- much damage has been done to the uptrend
4- Bearish seasonality until beginning of October
5- Tariffs and china devaluing the Yuan

Bullish case:
1- still hasnt dropped and closed below 200 Day MA
2- All CB's easing >> "Dont fight the fed"
3- Shock events like the ones we had the past few days usually end with selling culmination followed by a melt up and fuel for a big rally, and we might just have had that on Monday, think of Brexit, China in Aug 2015, Elections night
4- at this point the worst seems to be priced in or almost
5- Earnings strong and expectations are low
6- Almost all "widely Known" bearish setups (like the megaphone now) fail

I'm currently neutral, let's see if 200 Day MA gets tested or if Bulls reclaim the 100 and 50 Day MA's

**If you're interested in joining a group of like-minded traders, send me a PM. This is NOT a subscription service, just bunch of average traders sharing insights in a FREE group