A Macro Nerd, Technical Analyst, and a Quant walk into a Bar.

2022년 10월 6일

And all you get is this chart and no punchline.

Not any ordinary chart because this chart has everything you will ever need to actively manage investments in any liquidity environment.

1. You need a 20D moving average with 2 Std Deviation Bollinger Bands.
2. Add 3 of my new Delta/Gamma Indicators locking in on 3 of the markets biggest index hedges.
3. Add a tad bit of technical analysis


Just look at the history of the FED in 2020.



Then again in Fall 2018



And again in 2016



Total Gamma Exposure for the market has been stuck to zero gamma the past 2 days consolidating / distributing.

That means distribution for the days overall move will be smaller < 1.

The 2 smaller Equity Funds (EF) are negative gamma and the big EF is positive gamma.

The exact same scenario occurred in June when JHEQX flipped positive gamma on the 2 smaller EFs.


Volatility Compression with Short Squeeze Potential between now and CPI on the 13th.

With Elons financing pulling out of the Twitter deal, I assume Musk is selling TSLA each day again.

After AM/EU selloff, small short squeezes up or slightly down to end the day.

When he is done, I expect we’ll get a brief pop up to and maybe over the 20 Day moving average which was not tested yet.

This kind of price action is described well with Diamond Pattern.


Really hard to call this CPI, but I'm going to lean towards the FED CALL/SECOND LEG DOWN trend line down to hold for now until Jerome Powell Pivots on future rate hikes.

2022년 10월 6일

노트

Almost as accurate as a swiss watch.

"Total Gamma Exposure for the market has been stuck to zero gamma the past 2 days consolidating / distributing.

That means distribution for the days overall move will be smaller < 1."