SPX 500 - Dont Forget The Bear-Market In STOCKS!

2020년 5월 2일

Hello, Traders Investors And Community, welcome to this analysis about the current structure and formation in the SPX 500 Index, there are some important and significant details which have to be remembered and don't ignored. The stock market is still in an overall bearish market although fundamentally and technically, it is important that mainly the stock market is in a recession, as I already mentioned in previous analysis there are anticyclical investments which are moving in the opposite direction upward, a classical example is gold here! But there are also separate sectors in the stock market which moving against the market because they are profiting from the corona-crisis and its clinging measures which affectionate the market, smart people should concentrate on these truffles mainly the next time when to think about positions on the long-side.

Looking at the local situation we can see an overall bearish shape forming in the 4-hour time-frame, as you can see in my chart marked with the blue rising trend-lines the SPX 500 is forming a rising triangle which is in the very most occasions a bearish reversal formation, as we had this little bull-run from the 2220 to 2950 level which is ending right now, we saw several confirmations in the last days. The first confirmation was with the touch of the 400-EMA and after this the fall below the lower boundary od the rising triangle as you can see it marked in my chart with the red circle. Currently, the price is still holding on the 100-EMA but the fact that it touched it from the upside with high momentum is more bearish, it is possible that we see a second confirmation moving again to the lower boundary of the rising triangle before treading the path to the downside.

What can we expect the next days and weeks now? As you can see in my chart I marked the way down to the next meaningful and fundamental support-level which is marked in orange. It is the 2480 level from where a possible recovery of the bearish middle-term trend is possible. It is important to hold that level for recovery because when we fall below it the whole structure gets a more bearish shape! Also, it is the logical rising triangle target where minimum a snap-back-movement is possible. When this scenario sets in we have to look on further signs indicate how we can continue with the SPX 500 but remember the long-time shape is still bearish! As corona is not out of the schedule and the possibility is given for a second heavy wave this is what will affect the markets when it happens, also the economy has not yet recovered from the damage as there are many bad companies still around.

Great, this should give you a good overview of the current situation of the SPC 500 and what we can expect in the next time. it will be exciting to see how we will develop and if we have a possibility for a wave up, this scenario is in a possible spectrum but it has to be confirmed rightfully. There are many people saying the bear market in stocks is over and that we will get the next bull run for sure the next month, but that is at the moment a highly optimistic statement to say as the world is still in a situation with the meaningful pandemic and its global lockdowns it has never dealt with before and also it is hard to compare it with the world-economic-crisis and the 2008 crisis because the cause is completely different, in this case, we have to elevate above the mere speculation and therefore, it is important to measure the freshly changing situation and the many things going on which affect global markets.

In this manner, thanks for watching, have a good day and feel free to support for more market insight. All the best!
“Success is not final, failure is not fatal: it is the courage to continue that counts.”
FAREWELL

Inforamtion provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.