SPX - Not far from the bottom

When it comes to currency trading (forex) I have confidence that my method can find with high probability the current channel (within months) of the price. On the other hand, when it comes to indices, it is difficult for me to be unequivocal when I outline the "natural" channel - the channel in which the index "runs" over the years. Nevertheless, I bring here the "natural" channel in my opinion of US S&P 500.
In the first half of the previous decade (which is outside the time frame that can be seen in this chart) the price action was in the upper half of the channel and in the second half of the previous decade it fell to the lower half of the channel until the fast high and down of the corona epidemic crisis.