Market might push higher in the short term, but....

10월 5일

Market has refused to fall in the past few weeks. Whatever Fed is doing is working in the short term. With US election around the corner, it is highly unlikely the market will make any drastic moves until the end of this year. Seasonality is also on the side of the bulls. Geopolitical headwinds have stalled the progress but couldn't turn the tide; for now. The path of least resistance is up, and we will most likely see the run up to fib level resistance at 6300 before the end of year.
Market maybe also foreseeing turmoil right after US election. No matter who wins, the opposing party will most definitely fight the results; specially if it is close. There might be civil unrest and riots and markets do not like that. This could be the backdrop for the primary wave 4 drop which could last 6 to 8 months until the situation calms down and regular life ensues. even in ending diagonal situation, wave 4 might not come all the way down to wave 1 territory. And bearish sentiment will most definitely will be the prevalent one. Market might do what no one expects and put in another high by end of 2026 and make everyone bullish again only to start the super cycle correction.
I have no idea how bad the super cycle correction will be and how we will survive it. But one thing for sure, it is coming!