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SPX Bearish BAT near 0.786 Fib Retrace: Rollover Imminent?

업데이트됨

Pretty compelling graphic; the 1.621 BD resonance strongly suggests imminent rollover. This pattern has been long in developing and bulls are reluctant to give up gains.

I expected retest of TL at 3010; got to 3003 on Tuesday and fell back to the 0.786 Fib line. Still can have a washout top to test that TL, might get bullish Friday.

This feels like an extended, exaggerated B wave in an ABC, although it has dragged on for so long it seemed as if it would just keep grinding along in a flat.

See my related post on DJIA. That one already overshot the 1.618 harmonic, relatively greater strength in Dow Index carried it above the resonance projection.

Sudden enthusiasm over ERs or global good news could easily break this pattern and send prices to test the ATH. This harmonic pattern does favor R/R for shorting.

I've been fooled twice by this whipsaw and stoplossed both last week and again yesterday but pattern does appear to be nearing completion.

This is not investment advice; just another crackpot idea; trade at your own risk; GLTA!

노트

Looks like an exhaustion gap, looking to get to TL between 3010 - 3015 today.

Triple witching on Friday...

액티브 트레이드

Entered initial positions with SPX at 3008 on SPY/IWM/DIA/QQQ; in 10 each Nov put bear spreads shorting OTM Oct Friday exirations. Add if it lifts more; TL at 3010; could see 3015 or even 3020 again, impossible to know exactly but we're in the box; GLTA!

노트

Added 5 each spreads now in total of 60 bear put spreads:
DIA 272 Nov v. 270 Oct;
SPY 300 Nov v. 298 Oct;
QQQ 194 Nov v. 192.5 Oct;
IWM 154 Nov v 151.5 Oct.

With short contracts so close to the money got to constantly check and monitor these lest they slip ITM and u become subject to early exercise, then roll down!

노트

Moved my way so fast I had to roll 3/4 of the short spreads, moved strikes down $1 on SPY/DIA/QQQ for ~.10-.20c, still in Octobers; if it closes the gap Friday these will go ITM, can't take that chance; cheap to flip for a dime!

Further decline will force roll to next series; I hate selling NEXT Friday's puts over a weekend!

액티브 트레이드

Closed shorts; A real possibility exists for a strong bounce from Friday's selloff. Pivot came at TL defined by 8-10 Oct lows. Need confirmation on Monday's candle.

This triple witching move could shake out sellers and ignite a last move higher; beware!

액티브 트레이드

Re-entered partial position on retrace back to 2990. Expect to find real support between 2880 - 2920. Bounce off first support at 2880 likely represents a re-entry point. Bear in mind above caution; bullishness could return from this level, keep positions small- add on confirmation. Wrote $5 bear spreads on four major index ETFs again.

액티브 트레이드

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