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Ask Not How Low Will It Go, Rather Ask How Long Will It Last?!

업데이트됨

Clear three-leg stepwise downtrend. Monster rallies have occurred at 42, 63 and 70-day timeframes.
Current decline is at the 42-day mark. Had a huge green candle there before that lasted just a week.
Longer rally came at the 63 and 70 day marks. I do not pretend to know how much lower this will go.

Observing only how long it may take to pivot. A pivot to weekly countertrend move may occur next week, after 42 days.
IF it moves up for a week, likely to crush down to new LOTY in mid to late October, projecting around 17-25 Oct.

NB: Last Mon/Tues in October is 24/25. Back in '29 it was 28/29 October. Elections will spark a relief rally, they always get one.
Then Santa comes to town. The Longer the bear lasts, the Stronger the ensuing bounce.
But Jan-April 23 will be more Grinchy IMO. Stay Tuned!

노트

Day 43>44 scheduled rally in progress. Stay tuned!

노트

Wow nuts! Not chasing this. FOMO + short covering, a short-killer.

노트

IMO we are headed for a no-kidding pension killing life-savings wipeout crash. Could be October.

This frantic rally is typical of price move just before capitulation. Look out below.

노트

PPI 12 Oct; CPI 13 Oct 0830 NYT

노트

Didn't fill gap right away might just drift lower. Tried a few calls got 40 bucks for my trouble; puts were better, lol. Back in cash. Might get a crown formation before crash.

노트

Well gosh they wanted it all back EOD! So absurd, sell it all in AM, buy it back in PM, lose-lose. Looks like anotehr stupid rally going into CPI to setup for a massive tankoff.
Again. Why does anybody buy into this?! LOL

DaddySawbucks