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SPX near ending diagonal EW structure; More Pain Ahead

업데이트됨

EW labels as charted suggest an ABC is unfolding in a Zig-Zag corrective structure:

The 5-3-5 pattern is emerging, with the C wave 5-impulse remaining to fill;

Bear market rally 'B' wave has taken form of a WXYXZ 3-3-3 minute wave pattern, 3 counter waves each in turn consisting of 3 minute waves (minute labels omitted for clarity); the double topping ending diagonal near the 0.62 Fibo is ominous;

100% extension of A wave by 'C' is shown; the 0.62 extension would bottom at ~2140; the 1.24 extension would reach 1400 index price; NB, below: IF 'C' wave reaches 1.62 extension of A, then it likely represents the Third wave of an impulsive 5-wave correction, which would imply a crash to extreme low prices:

This is just an idea for your amusement and education; trade at your own risk; reference:

Education; from elliottwave-forecast.com/elliott-wave-theory/

5.1 Zigzag

Elliott Wave Theory Zig zag

Guidelines

• Zigzag is a corrective 3 waves structure labelled as ABC
• Subdivision of wave A and C is 5 waves, either impulse or diagonal
• Wave B can be any corrective structure
• Zigzag is a 5-3-5 structure

Fibonacci Ratio Relationship

• Wave B = 50%, 61.8%, 76.4% or 85.4% of wave A
• Wave C = 61.8%, 100%, or 123.6% of wave A
• If wave C = 161.8% of wave A, wave C can be a wave 3 of a 5 waves impulse. Thus, one way to label between ABC and impulse is whether the third swing has extension or not

액티브 트레이드

Doubled down on shorts at 2918 in the open on 4/28. Bearish signal, rollover imminent IMO

노트

Intraday printing pennant; going lower on flagpole imo

액티브 트레이드

Added to shorts back at the same price on 4/29 we saw on 4/28. HOTD 2926.6; Fibo 2937.

액티브 트레이드

Bought 3k shares of SPXS at $10 with index at 2932, within 5 pips of the Fibo. By some measures 2934 is the 0.618 retracement from 23 March, we have arrived IMO.

노트

Looks like the rising wedge broke on pushback from 2950 on 4/29. Chipmaker AMD ER was glum. More to come IMO. Watch the close after Fed minutes and Ka-Powell conference...

Volume on the pump 4/29 is even less than previous sessions. VIX remains over 30, at 31+ it picked up off LOTD even given the high prices. RSI diverges. Bull trap IMO.

노트

Well well... how about them Fibos?! Holding shorts and adding.

액티브 트레이드

Short covering into the close EOD lifts index off LOTD. Be ready for a double topping formation; perhaps H&S forming around 2950 resistance zone before the big sell.

Going into May & June contracts on QQQ in Friday trade, short the rallies IMO.

노트

A really cheap way to play this expected pullback: May calls on SPXS, SQQQ and TECS; NB: TECS did a 1:10 reverse split last week, was $3 now its $30, lol.
This why you don't hold these ETFs... they decay:
miaxoptions.com/sites/default/files/alert-files/TECS_RevSplit_46811.pdf

액티브 트레이드

Monday I closed the SPXS ETF while ahead it has not been behaving properly, moving just 25c on days when SPX went off 2%. On 5/5 shorted QQQ again at the $219 price. Looks like right shoulder and probably a wave 2 forming atm.

노트

@2900 we're at the .62 retrace from Mon low on nothing but optimistic greed, all the numbers in reports are terrible; looks like 2000 dot.com again...

액티브 트레이드

Entered SQQQ at price 220; double topping here IMO. UNwarranted enthusiasm IMO.

노트

Talk about timing lol, nice break near EOD...

액티브 트레이드

Shorted QQQ, SPY and IWM on 5/06. Moved into the money EOD.

노트

Big pump overnight, bad news is good again, lol. Got Three Drives pattern on the 5-day chart now in NQ, and broadening megaphone in SPX. last gasp IMO.

매매 수동청산

Shorted IWM on 5/11, closed out all my shorts on 5/12 on the AM selloff. Going to double top IMO. Bullish divergence in NQ is characteristic of bubble, selloff coming soon IMO but need a clear signal. Watch and wait.

액티브 트레이드

Made bank on IWM, FB shorts (see related Post); closed again looking to re-enter on retrace rally if we get one by EOD. Headed lower IMO but might bounce a bit here.

매매 수동청산

Shorted EOD 5/13 and closed in open 5/14; expect bounce from oversold.
Not betting on the bounce in face of bearish news but technically some relief rally likely IMO.

노트

What a bounce fgs!! Helluva Bear Trap Sprung Monday morning 5/18 after Fed comments on 60 Minutes, lol! "Just keep printing as much money as we need!" YAY!!!

By the grace of God I was in cash... I feel your pain Bears, and I'm afraid there's more to come as the short squeeze tightens... we are clearly in recession, yet the Bulls have gone nuts, is this the last gasp? Or a start of wild run to new ATH?!? Madness!

Back at the Fibo again... and 100 pips above the gap, which must fill... but when? Bit more squeeze left in it IMO, could get to 3k again this week.

액티브 트레이드

Entering initial shorts at the Fibo. In QQQ Jun 228P, short the weekly 226 strike;
In SPY Jun05 295P, short 05/20 dailies at 291 strike.