The S&P 500 Is Likely Unfolding A Bullish Pattern

An upside resolution remains most likely for the S&P 500. It is ambiguous if the low is in already.

US indices did not confirm recent weakness in Asia and Europe. However, there is no clear motive wave from the late February low. The S&P 500 can go both ways if we don't see a sustained breakout above 4400. A breakout above that level confirms that the bottom is in.

The correction from the all-time high counts best as an A-B-C zigzag pattern. Black shows that bulls fail to recover 4400. Therefore a contracting ending diagonal leads slightly lower. The key takeaway remains that prices should find support somewhere around the 3980-4065 cluster and rebound. A sustained break below 3980 indicates that the pattern is invalid. It will be the last shot for ultrabears to prove that a cyclical high was struck already. Otherwise, they could not take the market down despite a geopolitical disaster, out-of-control energy prices, and the crash in European stocks.

The bottom line is that the S&P 500 remains on target for 5000-5200 as long as 3980 does not break down sustainably. The bulls have one more party to celebrate before the wheels come off.