SPX Fake Rally?

2022년 11월 18일

As we continue to monitor the broader index market we see many discrepancies between the S&P, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones. All 3 are not displaying the same level of strength, but what they do all have in common is signs of weakness with this last rally. Although I'm open to the idea that the markets have bottomed, I still think its more that we still have 1 more leg down at this moment. I continue to see signs of weakness with this last rally, divergence, over-bought indicators, and topping patterns are all showing right now. That doesn't mean the market has to make new lows, but at the very least I would expect a higher low to develop. I would be extremely cautious over the next few weeks/months until we see the market start showing signs of strength again. I believe the current investor sentiment is persistent optimism, which is not good for the markets. We don't know if we'll see a higher low, or a new low, but I would be prepared for the worst-case scenario, which would be the markets pushing down to the $3200 support level. We have a lot of historical support in that area, including the weekly 400EMA and the bottom of our down-trend channel where I think it's likely we see a bottom.

Remember, be patient, level-headed, and don't follow the crowd.