SPX - Could be still whipping in a wide range

2023년 2월 26일

At the start of February, SPX saw a number of "affirmations" that the uptrend was underway:
1. broke up and continued to trade above it's longer term trendline resistence
2. traded above its 200 day MA since 24th Jan
3. followed by a Golden Cross on 1st Feb

However the month of February began to see momentum evaporate as the index began to pullback below it's 20, then 50 days MA and finally stopped short at its 200 day moving average.

There are now a confluence of immediate "supports" coming up between 3920 to 3949, namely:
1. the 200day MA @ 3940
2. the long term trendline resistence that could have turned support
3. 38.2% fib retracement of the big AB upswing that began from Oct's low @ 3920
4. which is also the 61.8% fib retracement of the more recent BC swing

Therefore we need to see some rebound this week if the this pullback is just a breakup and retest of major prior resistences or something more bearish (which mean breaking below 3920).

A look on it's monthly chart showed that SPX had been mostly whipsawing within a wide sideway range of between 3585 to 4150 for the past 9-10 months and it is possible we could have more of that (think "STAGFLATION").

Hence unless we see some rebound this week or it could likely be a short term trader's arena right now (ie high volatility, short term swing ups and downs).
Can only wait and see.

Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!

2023년 3월 4일

노트

SPX - Uptrend validated

Despite the great volatility since hitting "The" low in October last year, SPX has been forming a higher Low and Higher High and now another higher Low. The steep retracement we saw in February (61.8% of the AB up swing that begun in Jan this year) now served as a validation that the 200 day moving average is now respected as the new "support".

With more rate hikes likely in the horizon, expect more volatility ahead. However as a Technical trader, we should filter out the "noise" and trade what the charts are telling us. It does not mean that we know how long this Bull will last, but just trade in the right direction while it lasts.

Granted SPX was whipped within a wide sideway range (3500 - 4200) in the past 9 months, it is possible we could still be within this range until we could break above 4200. However, I will view any retracements going forward as "corrections within an uptrend" and not to be mistaken as a "bear rally" as long as the index is above both the 200 day moving averages.

Keep it simple.

2023년 3월 12일

노트

SPX - risk off again

SPX is now back below the 200 day MA with new fears that bank runs could spread after news of SVB's collapse. We do not not know yet how this will play out. Minor supports coming up at 3800-3850. However I wil be cautious as long as the index could not clear above it's 200 day MA again. Let's wait and see.

A look at the monthly chart showed how difficult the trading environment has been for the past 10 months (and still counting) as SPX whipsawed in a broad sideway range mostly between 3600 - 4150. Short term/range traders (long and/or short) are the main beneficiaries of such a market.