The S&P 500 Bottom

2022년 7월 29일

Top of mind for investors and traders right now is whether or not the S&P 500 has reached its bottom. While this is an impossible question to answer and depends on which timeframe one is looking for a bottom, I will attempt to provide an general analysis below.

First, the chart above is a quarterly chart (each candle represents a 3-month period) of the S&P 500. The pink line and shaded area represent periods of U.S. recessions as designated by data published by the Federal Reserve. The white line is the 20-period moving average.

The 20-period moving average is the most commonly used reference point for the mean (average) price of the time period being analyzed. The 20-period moving average is also the mean of the Bollinger Bands, which are used to detect how over- or under-extended price is relative to its mean.



GDP data suggest that we were technically in a recession in the first half of 2022. In the past 50 years, every recession has seen the S&P 500 revert down to its mean on the quarterly chart. Even the mild recession in the early 1990s, which hardly anyone remembers today, nearly tagged the mean. In fact, most recessions saw further downside movement. During the Dotcom Bust and the Great Recession the S&P 500 declined all the way to the lower Bollinger Band on the quarterly chart (as shown below).



The current stagflationary period (where inflation is elevated and economic growth is low) is most similar to the stagflationary period of the 1970s. During this period, we had a series of intermittent recessions and a relatively flat stock market over a period of about a decade. As you can see in the chart below, during each recession, the S&P 500 bottomed at either the mean of the Bollinger Band or down at the lower band (on the quarterly chart).



It was not until Paul Volcker sent interest rates to the moon that inflation finally ended in the early 1980s. Every yearly chart I've analyzed suggests we have entered into a period of stagflation and we will likely see higher inflation, higher unemployment, higher interest rates, and intermittent recessions for years to come. This is happening while the yearly S&P 500 Stochastic RSI oscillator is trending down sharply following more than a decade of rapid stock market expansion.



So far as of writing, we have not reached the S&P 500 mean on the quarterly chart. There is an overwhelming likelihood that, at some point in the future, we will. Nonetheless, traders ought not to base their trades on slowly moving yearly charts, as even in a prolonged downturn there can be lucrative intermediate-term long opportunities. Indeed, the quarterly mean (20-period moving average) moves up over time, and when we do revert down to it, that price may be higher than the current price.

Here are some other arguments for why we may have seen an intermediate-term bottom of the S&P 500 --

First, seasonality: As you can see in the seasonality chart below, the month of June often puts in the low for the year, which is sometimes retested in the August through October period (highlighted in yellow).



Second, Fibonacci levels: As you can see, June's price action bounced off an important Fibonacci level.

Price is also technically being supported on the third Fibonacci spiral from the Great Depression high as shown below (though this is precarious when viewed on the yearly timeframe).



Third, the intermediate term oscillators are starting to create a bias of momentum to the upside as shown in the chart below.



Fourth, the chart of the ticker S5TH is breaking out. The S5TH ticker simply represents the number of stocks in the S&P 500 that are above their 200 day moving average. This is extraordinarily bullish and a warning signal to those holding short positions.



Fifth, there has been a clear bullish breakout of the Advance Decline Line (ADL), as shown in the chart below. The advance-decline line is a technical indicator that plots the difference between the number of advancing and declining stocks on a daily basis. The advance-decline line is used to show market sentiment, as it tells traders whether there are more stocks rising or falling. Right now it is signaling a bullish reversal.



There are other bullish signals occurring as well, such as improving sentiment in the Put-Call Ratio and in the Fear-Greed Index.

Although all of these indicators are turning bullish. We still need to see the VIX break down below its trend line and the dollar index (DXY) to start declining, the latter of which will likely happen.

About a month ago, I questioned whether the DXY would top at its Fibonacci level, and indeed it formed an upper wick and came right back down to this level before the close of July, forming a bearish inverted hammer. There were many dollar index bulls who thought at the time that I was being ridiculous, but the charts were showing clear bearish divergence and there was very little chance that the dollar index (DXY) would blast past this important Fibonacci level while being so over-extended. I ignore all noise in the market and focus solely on what chart is saying. Charts are mathematical, statistical, and predictable. Charts also do not lie.

While anything can happen, it's quite certain that the coming months and years will be quite a roller coaster. There are very few people who are prepared for the magnitude of stock market decline that could happen now that unlimited quantitative easing is no longer sustainable.

I'll be posting updates along the way.

Look first, then leap!

2022년 7월 30일

노트

Before we get too optimistic that the bottom is behind us, we need to first get through August, September, and October, which are characterized by higher volatility, and declines in the stock market.

2022년 9월 26일

노트

Looking back at this post, the main theme remains true: The S&P 500 needed more downside as it searches for a bottom.

The breakout in the S&P 500 over the summer was merely a bear market rally. The DXY ended up ripping higher which means it's moving based on its yearly chart. (The DXY actually is breaking out from a bull flag on the yearly chart)

2023년 4월 10일

노트

As an update, look where the S&P 500 bounced:



However, we should remain wary. The 10y/3m yield curve is deeply inverted and continuing jobless claims are on the rise. It's likely that the S&P 500 will break below the 20-month moving average.