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Trump blows up G20 trade consensus

업데이트됨

Quote: The leading global economies just found out that they now live in a different world: That of Donald Trump.

At a meeting of policymakers from the Group of 20 major economies around the world on Friday and Saturday (March 17 & 18 2017), they were forced to drop their long-standing commitment “to resist all kinds of protectionism” in their communiqué because of U.S. opposition. No one is sure what comes next. Source: politico.eu/article/trump-blows-up-g20-trade-consensus/

The G20 meeting is held in Hamburg on Juli 7-8 2017. This is an other issue to bring down stockmarkets in the second half of 2017 and it´s time to focus on this even stockmarkets before might go higher to new multi year or all time highs.

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MAR 23 2017: G20 Summit, Hamburg, July 2017 en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_G20_Hamburg_summit

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MAR 23 2017: The story behind the upcoming G20 meeting. Traders shoud ignore this until it matters.

Quote: The Wall Street Journal
EU trade official warns talks with U.S. are in ‘deep freeze’

TORONTO — The European Union’s chief trade official said Monday the Trump administration is sending “worrying signals” on trade, arguing that erecting barriers to global commerce threatens to kill jobs and raise prices for consumers in both developed and emerging economies. In remarks in Toronto, Cecilia Malmström said the EU is seeking to bolster trade ties with partners like Canada, with which the bloc reached a trade pact last fall. By contrast, Malmström said the EU’s free trade talks with the U.S. are in a “deep freeze” as the Trump Administration seeks bilateral trade deals as opposed to multilateral or regional ones. Source: marketwatch.com/story/eu-trade-official-warns-talks-with-us-are-in-deep-freeze-2017-03-20?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigchartsSwissView3 days ago

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MAR 24 2017: The story behind the upcoming G20 meeting. Traders shoud ignore this until it matters.

Trump preparing orders to review trade deals, procurement: officials
Source: investing.com/news/politics-news/trump-preparing-orders-to-review-trade-deals,-procurement:-officials-468473

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MAR 24 2017: The story behind the upcoming G20 meeting. Traders shoud ignore this until it matters.
Quote: Japan finance minister Aso: G20 shared need for free trade
Source: investing.com/news/economy-news/japan-finance-minister-aso:-g20-shared-need-for-free-trade-468497

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MAR 28 2017: JPMorgan: A Le Pen loss will be a win for European equities

Quote:

If far right French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen loses the election, it will spur a "significant" surge of inflows into European stocks, JPMorgan said in a note Monday.

How significant?

JPMorgan estimated that a Le Pen loss will see at least 10 percent of assets under management flow back into the region's stock markets. It noted that since the beginning of 2016, around $100 billion has flowed out of the segment, according to EPFR data, marking up a loss of nearly 10 percent of assets under management. "We believe that these flows at least could come back into the region, should political uncertainty fade, in addition to any potential new net inflows," JPMorgan said. Some opinion polls have shown that Le Pen, leader of the far right, anti-European Union, anti-immigrant National Front party, could be a top pick in the first round of voting in France's presidential election on April 23.
A healthy majority of analysts and experts believe Le Pen, who wants to pull France out of the euro zone, won't win the second round of voting on May 7 if she makes it past the first. But fears abound over a potential dark horse Le Pen victory, in line with political surprises such as Brexit and Donald Trump's U.S. presidential win. That's spurred concerns of a potential French exit from the euro azone, dubbed Frexit, and even a possible breakup of the bloc. While JPMorgan noted that any "Le Pen loss" lap of inflows was likely to boost the euro, it didn't expect that would weigh on European stocks, which have benefited from a weaker currency. "We think a stronger euro would not be an impediment for regional equities and, in fact, believe the euro will turn positively correlated to euro zone equities, no matter the election outcome," it said. It noted that the euro is typically seen as a vote of confidence in the region. Quote: cnbc.com/2017/03/28/jpmorgan-a-le-pen-loss-will-be-a-win-for-european-equities.html

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Comment: MAR 30 2017: Trump declares war on Republican conservatives: 'We must fight them'
investing.com/news/politics-news/trump-takes-aim-at-republican-conservatives:-'we-must-fight-them'-469946

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APR 01 2017- Trump's newest orders warn China: Get ready for a tough talk next week
Source: cnbc.com/2017/03/31/xi-summit-trump-executive-orders-warn-china-of-tough-trade-talk.html

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Now keep your Attention to this Issue:
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And ask yourself: Why is Donald Trump getting aggressive to issues like "China", Mexiko or Immigrants if ever he getting under serious pressure about the Trump/Flynn/Russia/U.S. Election?

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APR 01 2017: Fear Indicator Mexican Peso

The Mexican Peso ist the most perfect Indicator to follow up how "storng" Donald Trump is (as US-President).

From the European and Mexican point of view is any "Trump weakness" long term extremly positiv. Maybe any Flynn testimony might cause a short term sell off - but long term Traders and Investors needs to keep in mind that this bullmarket is based on strong economic fundamentals and even not on Donald Trump. Donald Trump is still fighting against globalisation. If ever he might be forced to resign stockmarkets will go up.

The logic could be, that any impeachment could cause shortterm huge selling pressure especially to US-Stockmarkets. But keep in mind to check at times the Mexican Peso what signal we might get from here.

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APR 02 2017: China says U.S. trade orders should respect international rules
Source: investing.com/news/world-news/china-says-u.s.-trade-orders-should-respect-international-rules-470465

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APR 02 2017: Trump's Mar-a-Lago diplomacy with China's Xi may reveal more than you think
Source: cnbc.com/2017/03/31/trumps-mar-a-lago-diplomacy-with-chinas-xi-may-reveal-more-than-you-think.html

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APR 02 2017 An influential GOP senator throws cold water on the polarizing House border tax provision
cnbc.com/2017/03/29/gop-sen-portman-we-can-cut-corporate-taxes-without-border-adjustment.html

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APR 03 2017 Why Trump's golf diplomacy won't work with China's Xi Jinping
Source: edition.cnn.com/2017/04/02/politics/trump-xi-jinping-golf-diplomacy-wont-work/index.html

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APR 03 2017: Donald Trump says he is ‘totally in favour’ of ‘wonderful’ EU
US President performs apparent U-turn after criticising bloc in previous interviews
independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/donald-trump-european-union-eu-us-president-totally-in-favour-wonderful-steve-bannon-mike-pence-a7596731.html

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APR 03 2017: German manufacturing growth reached an reached an almost six-year high in March, Markit's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing showed on Monday. Manufacturing activity in France and Italy also rose, adding to signs of a pickup in momentum in the global economy.
Source: investing.com/news/stock-market-news/stocks-start-second-quarter-on-firm-note,-u.s.-policy-in-focus-as-trump-xi-talks-loom-470565

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APR 03 2017: China wants a piece of the US infrastructure boom. Trump won't let it come easy
Source: cnbc.com/2017/04/03/china-wants-a-piece-of-the-us-infrastructure-boom-it-wont-come-easy.html

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APR 03 2017: 'Not natural friends': Trump, Xi will be 'odd couple' at first summit

Some White House aides believe Trump’s son-in-law and senior adviser Jared Kushner could be an influential moderating voice on how he handles Xi in their talks on Thursday and Friday. Contacts between Kushner and China’s U.S. envoy helped smooth the way for the meeting, according to current and former U.S. officials.
Even so, what worries the protocol-conscious Chinese more than policy clashes is the risk that the unpredictable Trump could publicly embarrass Xi, after several foreign leaders experienced awkward moments with the new U.S. president.
"Ensuring President Xi does not lose face is a top priority for China,” a Chinese official said. Source: investing.com/news/politics-news/'not-natural-friends':-trump,-xi-will-be-'odd-couple'-at-first-summit-470970

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APR 03 2017: Chinese want to make sure Xi dodges 'embarrassments' with the impulsive Donald Trump
cnbc.com/2017/04/03/trump-xi-summit-china-to-limit-photo-opportunities.html

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APR 04 2017: Asia stocks skittish as investors seek shelter before Trump-Xi meeting
Source: investing.com/news/stock-market-news/asia-stocks-skittish-as-investors-seek-shelter-before-trump-xi-meeting-471023

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Comment: APR 04 2017 U.S. trade deficit falls as exports hit two-year high
investing.com/news/economic-indicators/u.s.-trade-deficit-falls-as-exports-hit-two-year-high-471179

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APR 04 2017, U.S. Trade Gap Shrinks as Exports Rise
Ahead of meeting between Trump and China’s Xi Jinping, deficit with Asian giant narrows
wsj.com/articles/u-s-trade-gap-shrinks-as-exports-rise-1491309098?mod=e2tw

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APR 04 2017 - Qoute: Keep Your Eye On U.S.-China Summit
Source: m.investing.com/analysis/keep-your-eye-on-u.s.-china-summit-200181292

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APR 05 2017 - Experts say China has been prepping its economy for Trump-Xi meeting
Quote: "We think that the compromise could take the form of Chinese investments in the U.S. creating jobs — this is already underway and more about framing," Mizuho said in a note Tuesday. "What's more, China could open more sectors to U.S. firms and will rehash openness to high-tech U.S. imports as well as services trade as quid pro quo," the note added. Source: cnbc.com/2017/04/04/experts-say-china-has-been-prepping-its-economy-for-trump-xi-meeting.html

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APR 05 2017 - Quote: Trump to speak with Germany's Merkel, Japan's Abe: White House
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump is scheduled to speak with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe later on Wednesday, the White House said in a statement that gave no other details. The scheduled telephone calls come as a senior ally of Merkel earlier on Wednesday pressed Japan to quickly seal a trade deal with the European Union.
Source: investing.com/news/politics-news/trump-to-speak-with-germany's-merkel,-japan's-abe:-white-house-471664

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APR 05 2017 - Quote: In reversal, Bannon removed from National Security Council
(CNN)Steve Bannon, President Donald Trump's chief strategist, has been removed from his permanent seat at the National Security Council, multiple sources tell CNN, moving the council into a more traditional format.
The decision, which one source with knowledge said was made by Trump himself, comes after the President in January authorized the reorganization of the National Security Council to include Bannon as a permanent member of the panel. Source: edition.cnn.com/2017/04/05/politics/steve-bannon-white-house-national-security-council/index.html

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APR 06 2017 - Trump accept's Xi's invitation to visit China: Xinhua
cnbc.com/2017/04/07/xi-tells-trump-a-thousand-reasons-to-make-china-us-relationship-work-no-reason-to-break-it--xinhua.html

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Comment: APR 08 2017 Chinese state media cheer Xi-Trump meeting, say confrontation not inevitable
cnbc.com/2017/04/08/chinese-state-media-cheer-xi-trump-meeting.html

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APR 09 2017 - Ford CEO Mark Fields 'encouraged' by US-China future as Trump, Xi end summit
cnbc.com/2017/04/08/ford-ceo-encouraged-by-us-china-future-as-trump-xi-end-summit.html

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APR 10 2017 - China offers concessions to avert trade war with US
Xi affords Trump prospect of quick wins on market access in finance and beef
ft.com/content/6c14b8fe-1ce5-11e7-a454-ab04428977f9

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APR 10 2017 - Opinion: Trump, May show surprising tilt toward pragmatism
Quote: Instead of acrimony and tantrums, we got cooperation and compromise
... However, in the past few days, the U.S. and British leaders have shown they are perfectly capable of reasonable policies designed around compromise rather than confrontation. ...
... The president carried out what appears to have been another valuable service by removing his top aide Steve Bannon from the White House National Security Council, where the former head of right-wing website Breitbart News had seemed out of place. ...
.... In a retreat from “no-holds-barred” Brexit orthodoxy, Britain has said it would abide by some rules — including free movement of citizens — during a transition in which new regulations are being phased in. On a visit to Saudi Arabia last week, May attuned her EU dictum to Realpolitik principles, accepting that no full trade deal can be concluded until after the U.K. leaves and conceding that immigration from the EU could continue until after the next British election in 2020. ...
Source: marketwatch.com/story/trump-may-show-surprising-tilt-toward-pragmatism-2017-04-10?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

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APR 11 2017 - China first-quarter auto sales strongest since 2014 despite tax cut rollback
investing.com/news/economy-news/china-first-quarter-auto-sales-strongest-since-2014-despite-tax-cut-rollback-473282

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Comment: APR 12 2017- Fitch changes its mind: Trump isn't a threat to the world economy after all
Quote:

- In February, Fitch warned that Trump posed a danger to global economic stability.

- In April, the ratings agency says the president's pro-growth agenda would push GDP more than expected.

Concerns linger over protectionism and debt, but the report was a major change from the previous warnings.
cnbc.com/2017/04/11/fitch-flips-trump-isnt-a-threat-to-the-world-economy-after-all.html

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APR 15 2017: "The Art of Deal" - the question is, who maked this deal?

China could had used Kim Jon un as troublemaker to get a good trade deal as trouble shooter.
cnbc.com/2017/04/13/us-china-pressure-should-limit-north-korean-nuclear-threat-analysts-say.html

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APR 17 2017 - Wall Street banker Cohn moving Trump toward moderate policies
WASHINGTON/BOSTON (Reuters) - In a White House marked by infighting, top economic aide Gary Cohn, a Democrat and former Goldman Sachs banker, is muscling aside some of President Donald Trump's hard-right advisers to push more moderate, business-friendly economic policies. Source: reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-usa-missile-idUSKBN17H0NL

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APR 17 2017: China beats GDP forecast
investing.com/news/economy-news/china-first-quarter-gdp-grows-6.9-percent-year-on-year,-better-than-expectations-474575

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APR 17 2017 - China Roars Back to Lift Global Outlook as U.S. Consumer Weakens

- Economy on pace to power one-third of global growth in 2017
- Government makes progress in restraining runaway credit growth

bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-17/china-roars-back-to-lift-global-outlook-as-u-s-consumer-weakens

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APR 17 2017 - China has more options to press North Korea than people think, says former CIA China analyst
China has more options to press North Korea than people think, says former CIA China analyst

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APR 17 2017 - Border Adjustment TAX maybe never to come:

Quote: Supporters of the border-adjustment provision point out that it would raise $1 trillion in revenue that could be used to help pay for lowering tax rates. Mnuchin told the Financial Times that there are other ways that the White House could raise $1 trillion but that the border-adjustment proposal is not "off the table." Source: thehill.com/policy/finance/329159-mnuchin-tax-reform-before-august-highly-aggressive-to-not-realistic

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Comment: APR 24 2017: Angela Merkel reportedly had to explain the 'fundamentals' of EU trade to Trump 11 times
businessinsider.de/trump-trade-merkel-germany-eu-2017-4?r=US&IR=T

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Trump agrees 'not to terminate NAFTA at this time'
edition.cnn.com/2017/04/26/politics/trump-nafta/index.html

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German manufacturing growth near six-year high in April: PMI m.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/german-manufacturing-growth-near-six-year-high-in-april:-pmi-479204

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Brazil's manufacturing PMI rises past 50 for first time since 2015
investing.com/news/economic-indicators/brazil's-manufacturing-pmi-rises-past-50-for-first-time-since-2015-479316

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German economy booms as protectionist threat goes pop
investing.com/news/economy-news/german-economy-booms-as-protectionist-threat-goes-pop-478522

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Rome seeks to reassure Mnuchin about Italian banks at G7
investing.com/news/stock-market-news/rome-seeks-to-reassure-mnuchin-about-italian-banks-at-g7-483278

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China fails to win tougher ruling against U.S. in WTO dumping case
investing.com/news/economy-news/china-fails-to-win-tougher-ruling-against-u.s.-in-wto-dumping-case-483212

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China has now become the biggest fear for markets
cnbc.com/2017/05/08/china-has-now-become-the-biggest-fear-for-markets.html

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Qoute: Trump ends overseas charm offensive in Italy with G7 meeting after lecturing world leaders at NATO summit – as he vows North Korean aggression 'will be solved, you can bet on that'

G7 summit begins Friday in Taormina, Italy, on the island of Sicily
Follows a tense NATO meeting where Trump lectured Europe about dues-paying and terror-fighting
President met with Shinzo Abe of Japan and assured reporters that the North Korean problem 'will be solved'
Trump began his 9-day trip as a rock star in Saudi Arabia but risks losing his momentum during meetings with liberal Europe
White House cuts off contact for the day with its press pool after officials contradict each other on whether Trump called Germany 'bad, very bad'
Trump trolls journalists, telling them: 'Great win in Montana' – a reference a violent Republican's victory in a special-election seen as a referendum on his leadership
Read more: dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4544536/Trump-ends-charm-offensive-Italy-G7-meeting.html

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Trump's tweet tirade against Germany could backfire on US
Trump's tweets follow a series of summit meetings with European leaders that reportedly included similar complaints about Germany's trade policy and NATO contributions.
The president's stance drew a sharp response from German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who voiced doubts about the reliability of the United States as an ally.
cnbc.com/2017/05/30/trumps-tweet-tirade-against-germany-could-backfire-on-us.html

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Here's why the gusher of billions into European stocks should continue
Political risks in Europe still exist, but analysts point to recent figures that suggest the euro zone economy is growing at its fastest rate in years, much faster than the U.S. economy.
European focused, U.S.-based domiciled funds alone saw net inflows of $4.2 billion in May, bringing total net flows year-to-date to $9.2 billion.
So far this year investors moved $13.7 billion to European funds.
cnbc.com/2017/05/30/heres-why-the-gusher-of-billions-into-european-stocks-should-continue.html

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Comment: OECD ups global growth forecast to six-year high; downgrades US
cnbc.com/2017/06/07/oecd-trump-us-eurozone-ecb.html

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Comment: Playing games: If ever Russia shot down a US warplane at, before or after the G20 summit all 18 (western) of the G20 Nations are forced to back Donald Trump. Win win situation for both Donald J. Trump and Vladimir Putin facing growing opposition at home.
nytimes.com/2017/06/19/world/middleeast/russia-syria.html?_r=0

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Jamie Dimon blows up at DC's dysfunction, says he's tired of 'listening to the stupid s---'

cnbc.com/2017/07/14/jpms-jamie-dimon-blows-up-at-washington-on-earnings-call.html

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Donald Trumps approval rates on new record lows:
washingtonpost.com/page/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/07/16/National-Politics/Polling/question_18935.xml?uuid=QLWiFmnbEeeUq1sfD_RZ3w

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President Trump's six-month approval rating is lowest ever recorded — but he says it's 'not bad'
nydailynews.com/news/politics/president-trump-six-month-approval-rating-lowest-record-article-1.3330385