Semiconductors, Crypto and Market Synchronicity

2022년 1월 6일

You can't throw a cpu chip without hitting someone that is complaining about how the market is overvalued.

You just need to look at the buffet indicator to see the total market is over x2 overvalued.


What most people are not looking at is why.

This idea attempts to highlight semiconductors influence on the overall market and expansion of the options market that now feeds the machine.

If you were not paying attention you may have missed the options market expanding nearly 2x since the chip shortage started.

A chip shortage heavily influenced by the trade war with china staring in 2018.

A chip supply that grew from 33 billion in 1987 doubled nearly ever 2 years (moores law) to 553 billion in 2021.

Is it a coincidence that S&P500s value grew at nearly the same rate since 1986 (green line)?

Is it a coincidence that bitcoins big breakout in Dec 2020 broke above the demand for semiconductors (miners/graphics card demand)?

Is it a coincidence that Apple + Tesla are the driving the options market since it's breakout in Jan 2020.

Is it a coincidence Apple, Tesla, Bitcoin and the options market peaked at the same time Nov 2021.

Synchronicity