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US Sentimentindikatoren auf Crash Niveau (III)

업데이트됨

Am Freitag (23.03.2018) wurden in den USA Sentimentwerte ("extreme bearish") gemessen, die zuletzt so im Jahr 2015 berechnet wurden. Im Jahr 2015 waren die wirtschaftlichen Fundamentaldaten deutlich schlechter als aktuell. Im Unterschied zu 2016 und 2016 befinden sich die US-Aktienindizes in keinem Bearmarket. Im Gegenteil: Aktuell sind SPX, DJIA oder NDX per Definition (vorsbörsliche Kursaufschläge mit einberechnet) nicht in "correction territorries" (Kursverluste höher als 10% ausgehend von den letzten Verlaufshochs).

End of day, 23.03.2018: Extremwerte für US Sentiment Indikatoren. Bitte Links anklicken um die Charts zu laden:

Cboe Intraday Put Call Ratio mit 1,55 auf dem höchsten Stand seit Jahren ycharts.com/indicators/total_putcall_ratio
Fear & Greed Index mit "7" auf dem niedrigsten Stand seit Jahren money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

Im März 2018 wird damit das 3. mal innerhalb eines Monats "extreme fear" gemessen. Die beiden Ereignisse zuvor:

1. März 2018: US Sentiment-Indikatoren auf "Crash Niveau" I

22. März: US Sentiment-Indikatoren auf "Crash Niveau" II

Auslöser der Kursrückgänge am Freitag waren extreme Ängste vor einer Eskalation des "Trade Wars" (Charts bitte anklicken um facts & figures zu laden):

Wie Conor Lamb Trumps Trade War auslöste

Wie "Stormy Daniels" den Zeitpunkt der "US-Strafzölle" festlegt

Wie "Stormy Daniels" den Zeitpunkt der US-Strafzölle festlegt II

Die Ängste vor einer Eskalation eines Handelskrieges haben sich über das Wochenende (nach dem Interview mit "Stormy Daniels") deutlich abgeschwächt. Trump hat Ausnahmen für Südkorea, Mexiko, Kanada, Südamerika und die EU angekündigt. China hat gelassen reagiert und kündigt heute an, mehr Speicherchips aus den USA zu kaufen und Bestellungen in Korea und Japan zurückzufahren.

Dow set to rise more than 350 points at the open as fears of an impending trade war ease
"The moves in premarket trade come after Wall Street finished Friday's session deep in the red, with the Dow Jones industrial average dropping more than 400 points by the close — closing at its lowest level since November. cnbc.com/2018/03/26/us-stock-futures-dow-data-fed-speeches-and-politics-on-the-agenda.html

Für die rückwirkende Betrachtung der Charts: Derzeit ist immer noch unklar, ob die crashartigen Kursabstürze in den USA und Europa von Anfang Februar auf Marktmanipulationen zurückzuführen sind - oder nicht:

Cls.: Trump hat einen Handelskrieg vom Zaun gebrochen, um die US Kongressnachwahlen zu gewinnen - und hat dennoch verloren. Die Eskalation erfolgte später dann punktgenau zu zwei Interviews, bei denen es um ausserehelichen Affären kurz nach seiner Heirat mit Melania Trump ging. Das nächste Ziel von Trump sind die Midterm Elections am 6. November 2018, die er gewinnen muss, um politisch zu überleben.

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USA verhandeln nun doch mit China

Seit vergangenen Freitag gelten in den USA Strafzölle auf Stahl und Aluminium aus China - doch nun gibt es offenbar doch noch Verhandlungen. Das teilt der Handelsberater des US-Präsidenten, Peter Navarro gegenüber einem TV-Sender mit.
Finanzminister Steven Mnuchin und der US-Handelsbeauftragte Robert Lighthizer verhandelten mit ihren chinesischen Kollegen, um bestehende Differenzen auszuräumen, hieß es. mobil.n-tv.de/der_tag/Montag-26-Maerz-2018-article20354144.html

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Dow jumps 600 points as trade tensions ease
The Dow Jones industrial average traded 600 points higher, with Microsoft as the best-performing stock in the index.
The move higher comes after the major averages posted their worst week since January 2016 amid fears of a trade war between China and the U.S.
Earlier, the Financial Times reported China has offered to buy more semiconductors from the U.S. to help cut its trade surplus with the U.S.
cnbc.com/2018/03/26/us-stock-futures-dow-data-fed-speeches-and-politics-on-the-agenda.html

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Dow industrials, S&P 500 on track for biggest 1-day surge in about 2 1/2 years

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 index rallied to trade at session highs late Monday afternoon, with the benchmarks on track to post their sharpest one-day climb since Aug. 26, 2015, according to FactSet data. The Dow DJIA, +2.58% was up about 611 points, or 2.56, at 24,147. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 index SPX, +2.39% was trading up 62 points, or 2.4%, at 2,650, also on track for the best daily rise since late August of 2015. A cooling of tensions around trade between the U.S. and China has given way to a powerful rally for U.S. stocks, which are coming off the worst weekly decline in more than two years. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, +2.74% surged 2.8% to 7,186, also putting the technology-heavy index on pace for its best one-session gain in about 2 1/2 years. marketwatch.com/Story/dow-industrials-on-track-for-biggest-one-day-jump-in-about-2-12-years-2018-03-26?&siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

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MAGA - Trump feiert 670 Punkte Plus des DJIA

mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/978368319542702080

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Wall Street gains on easing trade war tensions

Wall Street was higher on Tuesday, building on strong gains from the previous session on waning fears of a trade war between the United States and China.

All the 11 major S&P sectors were higher, with financial and technology stocks topping the list.

U.S. stocks suffered their worst declines of the year last week after President Donald Trump moved to impose tariffs on Chinese imports of up to $60 billion, adding to the import restrictions already placed on solar panels, steel and aluminum. Those concerns have eased following reports the United States and China are willing to renegotiate tariffs and trade imbalances.
"There's going to be continued volatility in the short term and a lot of it will depend on how the fundamental news flow comes out," said Lisa Erickson, head of traditional investments at U.S. Bank Wealth Management in Helena, Montana.
"Right now the biggest driver in the market seems to be around the trade news and it is looking more and more like some of these tariff discussions are negotiations rather than strong protectionist measures."
investing.com/news/stock-market-news/stock-futures-up-as-uschina-trade-war-tensions-ease-1364005

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FB @ 151: Facebook fällt in Bearmarket Territorry. Weg nach unten ist für FB frei. US Indices sollten weiter steigen - trotz Facebook.

Nasdaq drops 3%, Dow falls more than 400 points as tech shares roll over
cnbc.com/2018/03/27/us-stock-futures-dow-data-trade-and-politics-on-the-agenda.html

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U.S., South Korea to revise trade pact with currency side-deal, autos concessions

The United States and South Korea agreed to revise their six-year-old trade pact with a side deal to deter competitive currency devaluation by Seoul and with concessions for U.S. autos and pharmaceutical companies, Trump administration officials said on Tuesday. investing.com/news/economy-news/us-south-korea-have-agreed-in-principle-on-new-trade-deal-white-house-1365592

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SPX @ 2.605: Sentiment-Indikatoren weiter auf "Crash Niveau - extreme fear".

Cboe Intraday Put Call Ratio: 1,37
cboe.com/data/current-market-statistics
Chart: End of Day Werte
ycharts.com/indicators/total_putcall_ratio

Fear & Greed Index: "6", realtime: money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

Euwax Sentiment: negativ boerse-stuttgart.de/de/boersenportal/wertpapiere-und-maerkte/euwax-sentiment/

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Trump's China tariffs may not begin until June -U.S. officials
U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs on Chinese goods may not be imposed until early June, administration officials said on Wednesday, with public consultations and potential tariff revisions buying time for negotiations to forestall them.
U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said he anticipates about 60 days worth of public comment on a soon-to-be published tariff list, but added that it would take years to bring the U.S.-China trading relationship "to a good place." investing.com/news/economy-news/us-trade-chief-to-give-china-60day-tariff-notice-sees-yearslong-effort-1368309

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Die Welt, wie sie Trump täglich erklärt wird - FOX & friends:
video.foxnews.com/v/5760282262001/

vs.

Trumps letzte Chance, um die Wahlniederlage im November abzuwenden:

MAGA: Neue ATH´s für die Aktienmärkte.
twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/979447750529110017

Trigger: 1,3 bn Infrastruture Programm
twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/979444104923840513

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Dax schließt mit größtem Tagesgewinn seit einem Jahr

Entspannungssignale im Handelsstreit zwischen den USA und China sorgten für eine Kauflaune am Aktienmarkt.
handelsblatt.com/finanzen/maerkte/marktberichte/dax-aktuell-dax-schliesst-mit-groesstem-tagesgewinn-seit-einem-jahr/21143124.html

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GEOPOLITICS:

Trump ändert seine Tonlage: "Best buddy" von Chinas President Xi und harter Kämpfer gegen "Animal Assat" nach den Giftgasangriffen.

"President Xi and I will always be friends, no matter what happens with our dispute on trade. China will take down its Trade Barriers because it is the right thing to do. Taxes will become Reciprocal & a deal will be made on Intellectual Property. Great future for both countries!"
twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/982954355509907457

theguardian.com/us-news/2018/apr/08/trump-seeks-to-ease-trade-war-fears-by-saying-china-will-take-down-barriers

vs.

Many dead, including women and children, in mindless CHEMICAL attack in Syria. Area of atrocity is in lockdown and encircled by Syrian Army, making it completely inaccessible to outside world. President Putin, Russia and Iran are responsible for backing Animal Assad. Big price...

....to pay. Open area immediately for medical help and verification. Another humanitarian disaster for no reason whatsoever. SICK!

twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/982966315467116544
twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/982967389028569088

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"Theresa May hat britische U-Boote Richtung Syrien beordert. Die Flotte soll bis am Donnerstag (abend) für einen Militärschlag bereit sein."
20min.ch/ausland/news/story/Macron-und-Trump-fordern--starke-Reaktion--20388944

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TPP

USA erwägen Rückkehr zu Pazifik-Handelsabkommen

Die Aufkündigung war eine seiner ersten Amtshandlungen - nun lässt US-Präsident Trump Wege suchen, wie die Vereinigten Staaten doch wieder Teil des transpazifischen Handelsabkommens werden könnten. m.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/donald-trump-erwaegt-rueckkehr-zu-pazifik-handelsabkommen-a-1202676.html

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AAII Sentiment Survey: Pessimism Above 40% for First Time Since 2017

Pessimism among individual investors about the short-term direction of the stock market is at its highest level in more than year. The latest AAII Sentiment Survey also shows declines in optimism and neutral sentiment.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, fell 5.8 percentage points to 26.1%. Optimism was last lower on August 31, 2017 (25.0%). Bullish sentiment is below its historical average of 38.5% for the seventh consecutive week and the eighth time in 10 weeks.
blog.aaii.com/aaii-sentiment-survey-pessimism-above-40-for-first-time-since-2017/

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SPX/SPY @ 2.700