Bear Market imminent SP500 and all markets.

2020년 3월 11일

There has been a long standing trend line since 2012 for the current Bull market. Although today we are now 20% down and classified as a bear market. The break of this trend line. Which I am predicting will happen with the next 2 weeks will be a break of market structure a guaranteed bear market with a target of 1600 territory.

Two reasons I am basing the market to reach 1600's.

1. 1918-1920 Spanish Flu was followed with a 50% market crash.
2. It's the previous highs of the last bull market we had before a crash.

This is a long term play and not a scalp trade.

The next short term events will happen like this.

1. Markets might bounce due to being oversold and this trend line being a strong support for more than 12 years.
2. Governments are announcing measures to reassure markets, hence a bounce is due.
3. Ultimately the science points only one way, There is only one way to deal with this threat which is quarantine. All that we are doing now is delaying the inevitable by continuing to operate. This is a serious virus that will be with us for 1 year at least.
The UK and Germany, France, Spain is only some 2-3 weeks behind Italy. We will end up in the same situation as them in the weeks ahead.

Price action? Dead cat bounce and then break through support on the trend line with a close below.