Will soaring commodities lead to a surprise in tomorrow's data?

The inflation rate, CPI, and retail sales for the previous month will be released tomorrow. The general market expectations are that the inflation rate advanced higher by 0.4% MoM and 3.4% YoY in April 2024. The CPI is forecasted to come in at 313.75, and retail sales are expected to soar by 0.4% MoM, slowing down from an increase of 0.7% in March 2024. However, with accelerating inflation in the first three months of this year and commodities soaring across the board in April 2024, the question lingers whether investors are due to be surprised once again with tomorrow’s data.

Change in April 2024
Aluminium = 8.4%
Copper = 11.5%
Cocoa = -6.5%
Gold = 2.4%
Iron ore = 8.4%
Silver = 5.3%
Steel = 4.9%
West Texas Intermediate crude oil = -2.2%

Change since the start of 2024
Aluminium = 7.5%
Copper = 23.6%
Cocoa = 77.8%
Gold = 13.7%
Iron ore = -18.7%
Silver = 20.2%
Steel = –11.9%
West Texas Intermediate crude oil = 9.62%

Technical conditions
Daily time frame = Bullish
Weekly time frame = Neutral
Monthly time frame = Bullish

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DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.