Yield curve inversion and Morgan Stanley prediction

2018년 11월 6일

Morgan Stanley predicted end of economic cycle in 2021. morganstanley.com/im/en-us/individual-investor/insights/macro-insights/when-will-the-cycle-end.html?cid=232071715:429615759:0

And it looks like a yield curve inversion will occur in 2019 or 2020. fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?id=T10Y3M

I combined the above ideas and drew a green line staying in the current bullish trend channel. I drew a red line showing a delayed bearish reaction after a yield curve inversion. Recessions usually follow 3-22 months after a yield curve inversion. The red line shows a drop to a support line by 2021 and then a rally in anticipation of a new economic cycle.

2018년 11월 6일

노트

This app makes a ten year forecast of S&P 500. It predicts a rise to 3200 in 2019 and then sideways market (between 3000 and 3400) until year 2028. play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.stocktrendadvanced

If the app's forecast came true, it would defy expectations of a bubble followed by a crash. However, the anticipated actions of the Federal Reserve actually could resist the bubble and resist the crash. So, it is possible to have a sideways market for a decade.