Support is at 280 ish SPY SPX

2020년 6월 12일

The 14% pullback projection seen in the above is derived from the ratio of change seen in 2018.

This thesis is based on the following: If 2018 was the beginning of a megaphone type corrective move, then the % change will be of greater magnitude; however, the ratio's expressed as % change should be statistically similar.

During the corrective moves in 2018, we saw; first, a 20% decline followed by a 25% rally followed by a 7% retracement.

Today, we have experienced a 35% decline, followed by a 47.5% rally.

Is there going to be a Pull Back? Yes, we have seen that this week.

How large of a pullback from recent highs will it be? My expectation; 14%.

20% to 35% is a ratio of 1.75, while 25% to 47.5% is a ratio of 1.85. So, if this corrective move is in similar terms to what happened in 2018 in terms of MATH, then I expect a total pullback of around 13.7% - 14.85% from recent highs.

Will we retest lows? No, I do not believe so.

14% off of recent highs is around 282 - 280. Coincidentally, this is right near the 700sma red line.
Please note this will probably happen after quadruple witching next week.

*Just some guy/girl/they 's thoughts*


Cheers
-Andimolz


//Logic Reference
slow_sma = sma(src, 700)
fast_sma = sma(src, 14)
standard_sma = sma(src, 90)
//slow_ema = ema(src, 700)
//fast_ema = ema(src, 14)
standard_ema = ema(src, 90)