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KISS STRAT

DaddySawbucks의

업데이트됨

Can't get any more simple than this. Reductio ad absurdum. Alternation Pattern. Follow the Money.

노트

Yeah. Lately what I noticed is the gaps dont fill right away, they just go. Up or down, gap n go.

노트

October is famous for crashes but more often its a pivot reversal month.

Eyes peeled, a crash is quite possible imo.

Keep an eye on Eliades' youtube posts, here's the latest:
youtube.com/watch?v=P0NBSeWjTMg

노트

Reversion to mean Shiller PE would take SPX down another 40% there is room to fall further, 27 >17:

Current Shiller PE Ratio: 27.04 -0.20 (-0.75%)
4:00 PM EDT, Mon Oct 10
Mean: 16.98
Median: 15.89
Min: 4.78 (Dec 1920)
Max: 44.19 (Dec 1999)

Shiller PE ratio for the S&P 500.

Price earnings ratio is based on average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years, known as the Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio (CAPE Ratio), Shiller PE Ratio, or PE 10

노트

Remember the rule of 2/3:
1/3 of the price drop in bear market occurs in first 2/3 of market time course.

SPX now down 1200 pips from ATH in 9 months.
Typical bear will last 15 months or more.

NB: 2/3 of price decline occurs in last 1/3 of time course;

Ergo SPX has a helluva drop coming in next six months.
IMpossible to say when exactly this is coming but winter 2023 could be real grim.

액티브 트레이드

Flipped calls in AM puts in PM. Shorted EOD. Close below 3600 implies imminent breakdown IMO.
NB: Rejected from 3630, former support became resistance.

Gonna tank off IMO, regardless where the CPI comes in. If it's worse, going down like ton of bricks. If it's slightly better, they will say it's not good enough and go down anyway.

노트

Closed out all AH and happy about that, see how the clowns pump it o/n. Washout low coming imo.

노트

Nuts. Algos were primed to buy 350. No one saw this coming. It's a ferocious bear rally, see if it gives way to a higher low next week. No positions.

액티브 트레이드

Nice dump. No Fed Pivot in sight. Get ready for a massive dump, again. Probly headed back to test LOTY 3500.

노트

Holding 15 each SPY QQQ VSP and ten DIA 320 puts.

노트

Gonna close these out in open, got a wee gap; take what it gives you.
Gone into strong oversold condition, some kind of bounce is likely, although it may just grind down all day.

액티브 트레이드

Flipped P & C all day. Down up down. Never got the gap filled, pushback over and over from 15-20 pips below.
EOD sell and AH action resembles weds nite so we may expect more volatility friday and EOW risk-offf could be sharp.

DaddySawbucks