Fed Week-Boring Week!

2019년 6월 17일

We are beginning the week with talk about the Fed cutting rates and typically we will see the markets flip flop with a grind higher into the decision. There is a channel in place and I would not be surprised to see us stay within it until the algos are triggered one way or another after the Fed decision. I don't think they will do anything, but it may be more about their wording that moves the markets.

The preferred pattern is lower, but as I have been saying since the 2910 highs, until the bears show up and push the spx below 2870, the bulls will just hang around. Now is NOT the time to become complacent. Even if the bulls do try higher first, it doesn't have the makings of a sustained rally/breakout. Using overnight trading to do most of your work, like we have seen, is a foundation made of sand.

The market dynamics have changed and not many are paying attention to it. Even if the Fed decides to cut rates, what do they have in their arsenal, 2 cuts and they are dry again? Maybe they can start another round of failed QE? But that would completely wipe out the pension funds as well as other central banks. This is just my opinion, but I think they are testing the waters on "jaw-boning" markets out of capitulation and that is it-meaning they will just throw rate cuts out there and have no intentions of cutting. Watch the channel-it looks like a bear flag and we have some important dates approaching. G