S&P 500 Catching Up with Nasdaq 100 - Dow Theory in Action

2018년 11월 5일

According to Dow Theory, the Indexes must confirm. That is not happening.

Have you noticed that the best performing US index the Nasdaq 100 is correcting its explosive growth. The positive divergence (outperformance) of the NDX versus all other US indices is being corrected. The NDX is losing ground faster than the SP500 0.14% and DJ30 and the Nasdaq giants the FANGS ( FB, AMZN, APPL, NFLX, GOOGL) are being punished also including Tesla, NVDA, ATVI and more.

Apple's outlook does not help but essentially it is irrational. But it does not matter what I think, it is what Mr. Market thinks. Mr. Market is the sum of all the knowledge of all the investors. Mr. Market is scared and so should you be.

The S&P 500 will also get punished by the fall in the FAANGs but in reality, the SP500 is a much broader index of the TOP 500 companies in the US.

Of course, this could all change on a dime, but my suspicion is that Mr. Market is truly nervous, because the US mid-terms are signaling the beginning of the end for TRUMP. Mr. Market loves Trump. You see Mr. Market cares about profit, not people. That is OK, but as an investor you need to understand how Mr. Market thinks, not your personal opinions. Your opinions count when trying to get the edge on Mr. Market. when you see the sun rising before Mr. Market and get back in to your stocks. Your investment is the expression of your opinion, and Mr. Market is running scared.

Trump is very worried, promising undeliverable big tax cuts for middle America and today promising the resolution of the China trade war.

If the mid-terms go to TRUMP expect a rally, if not expect further decline.

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