Solana Rally almost over

2023년 12월 31일

Among all the blue-chip alts, Solana has had the most impressive run so far. It has almost 9X'ed from its bottom in July this year. But technical are showing signs that its rally is about to end and it's about to enter long term consolidation.

So far it has had multiple drives of bearish divergence on Daily RSI and has hit its head in resistance with divergences. As you can see the RSI is trending inside a triangle and is about to hit the lower trendline of the triangle, so it possible we may see short term bounce once it hits the trendline or Bitcoin produces a bounce, but the upside is limited.

If we get another push up, we might double top or if we create another high, but it won't be significantly higher than the current one as we have Weekly level right above the daily supply from where Solana has recently rejected. The weekly level is also surrounded by important fibs i.e. 0.886 from the march 2022 high and 0.5 of ATH.

Also, if we look at the Weekly RSI it's in an extremely overbought zone, so hard to imagine there is much room left. I have highlighted the RSI in the past showing where Solana is in terms of bull cycle, it has a long way to go up in coming months and a year.




Now coming back to Daily RSI in the main chart once the RSI breakdown happens from the Triangle, its measured move takes us to extreme oversold RSI levels. I have measured how long it took in the past for the RSI to get down to extremely oversold conditions when the RSI was in similar state. It took approx. 60 to 70 days.

60 to 70 days from now is march April TF approx.., and we all know from the BTC cycle perspective we always get a dip right before the Halving which servers a double bottom for real bull market to take shape.

BTC halving is expected in April end in 2024 and its highly likely we will see BTC correct 30 to 40% from its top which will take All the alts down with-it including Solana, so it all fits with the timeframe of finding the possible bottom in March, April 2024.

I have highlighted the next zone of accumulation for Spot Solana to hold for the next bull run in 2024 to 2025.