The straw that breaks the camels back?

The last month and a half the buying pressure has kept the price above the average true range line over 90% of the time. It is not unusual that the price crosses below the 1 month average true line, because it usually just corrects itself and crosses back over in favor of the buyers. Could this cross-over on the montly chart finally be the straw that breaks the camels back? If I am right we could easily see prices correct back into the 20-22$ range by next week.