SNAP, completely irrational price targets, earnings to earnings

2018년 10월 1일

SNAP is currently down -35% in 52 days since last earnings on Aug. 7, 2018 when SNAP reported -0.27eps vs est. -0.31eps.

This is an analysis of price movement between earnings periods.
Aug. 10, 2017 - Nov. 7, 2017
- Aug. 10, 2017 Reported -0.36eps vs est. -0.30eps
Earnings to earnings, price increased +13.7% (13.42 -> 15.26)

Nov. 7, 2017 - Feb. 6, 2018
Nov. 7, 2017 Reported -0.36eps vs est. -0.32eps
- -19% the next 3 days
- +31% the next 34 days
- -17.4% the next 47 days
- +3.2% last 7 days to next earnings
Earnings to earnings, price dropped -9.96% (15.26 -> 13.74)

Feb. 6, 2018 - May 1, 2018
Feb. 6, 2018 Reported -0.28eps vs est. -0.33eps
- +50% Price increase the next day
- -32% the next 55 days
- +12% the next 20 days
- -11.5% last 7 days to earnings
Earnings to earnings, price increased +1.24% (13.74 -> 13.91)

May 1, 2018 - Aug. 7, 2018
May. 1, 2018 Reported -0.30eps vs est. -0.29eps
- -23.3% the next 2 days
- -1.10% the next 26 days
- +34.2% the next 19 days
- -7% the last 50 days to earnings
Earnings to earnings, price dropped -5.37% (13.91 -> 13.17)

August 7, 2018 - Nov. 8, 2018
Aug. 7, 2018 Reported -0.27eps vs est. -0.31eps
- -6.85% the next day
- -26% next 34 days
- -6.8% next 16 days
Currently SNAP is at 8.45
Looking at previous movements between earnings, it is possible for the price to move up +34% to 11.32 by Nov. 8, 2018 Earnings.
This would put the earnings to earnings at a price drop -14.05% (13.17 -> 11.32)













BUT THAT ISN'T THE WSB WAY. SNAP TO EARTH'S CORE!!!!!

The other completely irrational analysis made by looking at bars on a chart is that SNAP will be at the 7.23 - 6.65 range by Nov. 8, 2018.
This would put my made up, earnings to earnings price, at a drop of around -40% - -50%